2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_East_African_Community_Prospects_for_Sustained_Growth_55页_1mb

Summary of "The East African Community: Prospects for Sustained Growth"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper analyzes the growth performance of the East African Community (EAC) and evaluates its prospects for achieving sustained high growth. The study draws on methodologies from growth literature to identify growth accelerations and sustained growth episodes, using them as benchmarks to assess the EAC's potential.

Main Points

• Recent Growth Performance: The EAC has experienced strong growth over the past two decades, outpacing the rest of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) since 2000. In 2005–10, per capita income growth averaged 3.7% in the EAC, compared to 3.2% for SSA as a whole.

• Growth Inequality: Growth has been uneven across EAC countries. Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda have had the longest periods of high growth, while Kenya and Burundi lag behind. Kenya, the largest economy, has shown improvement since 2005, and Burundi has had declining output since 1990.

• Growth Ambitions: The EAC aims to achieve middle-income status and significant poverty reduction by the end of the decade. To do so, the region would need an average real per capita GDP growth of about 5.5% per year for the rest of the decade, which is 2 percentage points higher than the recent growth rate.

• Key Factors for Sustained Growth: The paper identifies several factors that distinguish sustained growth from non-sustained growth, including:

  • Prudent macroeconomic policies
  • Strong institutions
  • Favorable business environments
  • High investment and savings rates
  • Export-oriented growth with better current account balances
  • Improved governance and reduced inflation

• EAC's Position Relative to Sustained Growth Countries: EAC countries perform well in macroeconomic and government stability, business climate, and institutional strength, but lag in terms of:

  • Export share
  • Financial deepening
  • Domestic savings
  • Reliance on donor aid
  • Physical infrastructure and human capital

• Policy Implications: The study suggests that policy choices are crucial in determining whether the EAC can follow the path of sustained growth or revert to a pattern where growth upturns fail to last. The focus is on improving institutions, promoting financial liberalization, and enhancing competitiveness.

Key Findings

• Growth Accelerations: Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda have achieved growth accelerations, meeting the criteria for rapid growth and acceleration. However, they have not yet met the threshold for sustained growth, as their growth episodes are too short or they failed to maintain growth rates above 3% for at least five years after the acceleration.

• Sustained Growth Episodes: The paper identifies 34 sustained growth episodes across 28 countries, and 35 non-sustained episodes. The EAC countries are not included in the list of sustained growth countries.

• Regression Analysis: The study uses probit regression to predict the probability of growth accelerations and sustained growth. It finds that both external and internal factors play a role, with the end of civil war and financial sector liberalization being particularly significant. The probability of growth acceleration increases by 38% following the end of civil war and 8% after financial liberalization, both after five years.

• Importance of Institutional and Economic Reforms: While initial growth can be driven by external factors, sustained growth requires continued institutional and economic reforms. The analysis shows that financial liberalization increases the probability of sustained growth by 10% after seven years.

Conclusion and Policy Priorities

• Sustained Growth Path: The EAC needs to address key shortfalls in financial depth, domestic savings, and infrastructure to follow the path of sustained growth.

• Policy Recommendations: The paper emphasizes the importance of:

  • Maintaining macroeconomic stability
  • Improving governance and institutions
  • Promoting financial sector liberalization
  • Enhancing export competitiveness and productivity
  • Reducing reliance on donor aid
  • Investing in human capital and physical infrastructure

These policy interventions are critical for translating the recent growth upturn into a sustained high growth trajectory.