2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_How_Solid_Is_Economic_Growth_in_the_East_African_Community__23页_1mb

Summary of "How Solid Is Economic Growth in the East African Community?"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper by Nikoloz Gigineishvili, Paolo Mauro, and Ke Wang evaluates the sustainability of economic growth in the East African Community (EAC) over the past decade. The authors use a combination of newly-collected and existing data to analyze structural transformation, diversification, and the quality and sophistication of output and exports.

Main Findings

• Economic Growth Performance:
  The EAC countries achieved an average real GDP growth rate of 6.2% between 2004 and 2013, placing them in the top one-fifth of all 10-year growth rate episodes globally since 1960. This growth was notable even during the 2007 global financial crisis. However, this performance is considered rare and may not be sustained in the future.

• Reversion to the Mean:
  Historical data suggest that growth rates tend to revert to the mean, with a low correlation between a decade's growth and the next. Based on a regression model, the likelihood of the EAC maintaining a 6.2% growth rate over the next decade is less than one in four. This implies that while the recent growth has been strong, it may not be a long-term trend.

• Structural Transformation:
  The EAC has experienced a structural shift from agriculture to other sectors. The share of agriculture in total output decreased from almost 50% in 1970 to about 33% in 2010. Other sectors, particularly construction, transport and communications, and wholesale trade, saw significant gains in their shares of total output.

• Diversification of Output and Exports:
  The EAC's economies have become more diversified in both output and exports. The share of agriculture in GDP and in exports has declined, while manufacturing and other service sectors have expanded. The number of distinct export products has also increased, especially in manufacturing.

• Export Product Diversification:
  Exports have become more geographically and product-wise diversified. The Theil index of export diversification shows a decline, indicating a broader distribution of trade partners and products. The EAC's export diversity is now at least as high as the Sub-Saharan African average, with Kenya and Tanzania leading.

• Sophistication of Exports:
  The sophistication of EAC exports has increased, as measured by a productivity index based on the per capita GDP of exporting countries. The EAC's sophistication index rose between 1990 and 2010, with Kenya starting at the highest level and others converging over time.

• Quality of Exports:
  The quality of exported goods has improved, as evidenced by higher value ratios relative to other countries. However, the improvement in quality is not uniformly across all products, and most remain primary commodities with limited processing.

Key Information

• GDP Growth:
  The EAC's average real GDP growth rate of 6.2% from 2004 to 2013 is among the top performers globally over the same period.

• Data Sources:
  The analysis draws on data from the World Economic Outlook, World Development Indicators, UN COMTRADE, and a new IMF in-house database of sectoral output.

• Indicators Used:

  • Theil index for export diversification
  • Sophistication index based on per capita GDP and export composition
  • Quality of exports measured by value ratios relative to other countries

• Country-Specific Insights:

  • Burundi and Rwanda saw significant improvements in health outcomes and economic growth.
  • Kenya and Tanzania were ahead in export diversification and sophistication.
  • Uganda's export product diversity increased substantially, from about 100 in 1980 to over 500 in 2010.

• Challenges to Sustained Growth:
  While structural transformation and diversification are positive signs, no clear comparative advantage has emerged that would ensure long-term growth. The analysis also notes that the impact of recent natural resource discoveries is not considered.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that although the EAC has experienced strong and rapid economic growth over the past decade, the sustainability of this growth is uncertain. The structural transformation and diversification are encouraging, but they do not guarantee continued high growth. Moreover, the lack of a durable comparative advantage and limited quality improvements relative to competitors suggest that future growth may slow down, aligning with the statistical pattern of reversion to the mean.

Key Takeaways

• Rapid growth is not guaranteed to continue.
• Structural transformation and diversification are positive indicators.
• No clear comparative advantage has emerged.
• Quality and sophistication of exports have improved, but not significantly relative to global competitors.
• The paper provides insights but does not account for all future growth determinants.