2023-11-23-国家经济和社会研究所-英国月度工资跟踪_第三季度工资增长近8_预计第四季度将增长7_7页_310kb

报告摘要

NIESR Monthly Wage Tracker Summary

Key Highlights

Wage Growth
- Annual Growth:
  - Average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) grew by 7.7% in Q3 2023, among the highest rates since records began in 2001.
  - Including bonuses, growth was 7.9%, but this was partly influenced by one-time civil service bonuses.
  - Private sector wages rose by 7.8%, while public sector growth was 7.3%.
Real Wage Growth:
- Adjusting for inflation, real total pay growth in Q3 was 1.3%, offsetting inflation’s erosion of purchasing power.
- Private sector real pay growth was 1.1%, while public sector grew by 2.1%.
Labor Market:
- The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, but job vacancies decreased by 58,000 to 957,000, falling for the 16th consecutive quarter.
- The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio (~0.44) still indicates a tight labor market, supporting high wage growth despite signs of slowing.
- High-frequency data showed mixed signals: permanent placements decreased, but temporary placements increased, potentially reflecting seasonal hiring or labor shortages.
Services Sector:
- Services sector total pay growth reached 8.2% in Q3, driving services inflation.
- Monitors caution that this fueling services inflation could persist despite monetary tightening efforts.
Caveats:
- Data relies on experimental estimates due to Labour Force Survey attrition.
- Wage forecasts use models incorporating GDP and labor cost indicators, with inherent uncertainties.
- Bonus volatility and seasonal factors may skew real-time data.