牛津经济研究院-啤酒在低收入国家的经济贡献（英）-2024.1-32页_2mb

Beer Sector Economic Contribution in Low-Income Countries

1. Overview

• The beer sector is the most popular alcoholic beverage category globally and has a substantial economic footprint in low-income countries (LICs).
• Economic Impact (2019):
  • GDP Contribution: Average 1.6% in LICs vs. 0.9% in high-income countries.
  • Job Creation: Supported 6.7 million jobs in LICs (~1.4% of national employment) vs. 4.5 million in high-income countries (~1.1%).
  • Gross Value Added (GVA): $34 billion in LICs vs. $337 billion in high-income countries.

2. Key Findings

• Beer Consumption:
  • Per capita consumption in LICs is lower (28 litres vs. 85 litres in high-income countries), yet LICs allocate a larger share of disposable income to beer (3.4% vs. 1.6–2.7% in other income groups).
  • Beer behaves as a luxury good in LICs (income elasticity >1), while it is a normal good in high-income nations.
• Unrecorded Alcohol Market:
  • Unrecorded alcohol consumption is highest in LICs (37% of total consumption), driven by affordability and illegal production.
  • Spirits have a higher unrecorded market share than beer in LICs.

3. Growth Potential

• If beer consumption increases while total alcohol consumption remains constant, LICs could see:
  • GVA Contribution: Up to $71 billion (~109% growth from 2019).
  • Job Creation: 13 million jobs (~90% increase).
• Country-Specific Potential:
  • India: Largest economy in LICs, where unrecorded alcohol (46% of consumption) and low beer preference could drive significant growth if restrictions are eased.
  • Ethiopia: High potential due to limited beer consumption and a large unrecorded market.
  • Cambodia/Malaysia: Limited growth due to already high beer consumption relative to high-income countries.

4. Challenges

• Market Barriers:
  • Higher taxes on beer (lower-income nations tax beer 2.8x more per ethanol content than spirits).
  • Competition from cheaper illicit spirits and local alcoholic beverages (e.g., in Africa).
• Cultural Factors: Religious beliefs and social norms discourage alcohol consumption in certain LICs.

5. Recommendations for Future Research

• Macroeconomic Impact: Assess beer consumption's effect on broader economic growth using general equilibrium models.
• Tax Efficiency: Analyze the efficiency of alcohol tax frameworks and their impact on consumption.
• Illicit Market: Evaluate the economic and social costs of unrecorded alcohol consumption.
• Causal Analysis: Use econometric models to confirm the relationship between income, price, and beer consumption.