2023-11-21-全球发展中心-流行病病原体估计的未来死亡率和流行病的可能性_78页_2mb

Estimated Future Mortality from Pathogens of Epidemic and Pandemic Potential: Summary

This report analyzes the future risk posed by pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential, focusing on mortality. Using computational epidemiology and extreme events modeling, the study estimates average annual deaths and exceedance probabilities for respiratory diseases (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel coronaviruses) and viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs, such as Ebola).

Key findings include:

• Global average annual direct deaths from respiratory diseases: 2.5 million (dominated by pandemic influenza).
• Global average annual direct deaths from VHFs: 26,000, with 72% occurring in Africa.
• COVID-19-sized events have a 2-3% annual probability (return period of 33-50 years), challenging the "once in a century" narrative.
• Yearly variations are high, and tail risks (low-probability, high-severity events) heavily drive expected losses.

The analysis emphasizes that severe epidemics occur more frequently than previously thought, and risk-informed planning is crucial for effective resource allocation, preparation, and response to mitigate future pandemics.