联合国贸易发展委员会-边境非关税措施_GTAP层面分析（英）-2025.5_34页_1mb

This report analyzes the impact of non-tariff measures (NTMs) at borders on global trade, using data and simulations from the GTAP model. Key points include the significant role of NTMs in increasing trade costs, with varying effects across sectors and regions. The descriptive statistics reveal that border NTMs cover a large portion of global trade, with higher incidence in developing regions for agriculture and food sectors. Cost estimates, measured in ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs), show that sectors like agriculture face higher costs, while regional trade agreements can reduce these costs. Simulations demonstrate that a 50% reduction in NTM costs could boost global GDP by 0.4% and welfare by US$330 billion, with substantial benefits for regions like Africa and Latin America. Trade creation and diversion effects are notable, with positive impacts on intra-regional trade within agreements like AfCFTA and RCEP. The conclusions emphasize the importance of reducing border-related NTM costs to enhance trade efficiency and economic growth.

Key Findings:

• NTMs significantly increase trade costs, with the greatest impact in agriculture and food sectors.
• Descriptive statistics (frequency, coverage, and prevalence scores) indicate that border NTMs affect 40-85% of trade depending on the region.
• AVEs vary widely by sector and region, with agricultural products bearing the highest costs.
• A global 50% reduction in NTM costs could increase global GDP by 0.4% and trade by US$300 billion.
• Welfare gains are highest in East Asia and Africa, while trade diversion affects non-member countries negatively.
• Regional trade agreements like AfCFTA and RCEP offer substantial benefits when reducing NTM costs, including increased intra-regional trade and welfare gains.
• Overall, reducing border NTM costs through trade facilitation and customs reforms can significantly enhance global trade and economic development.