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MNA Knowledge and Learning Summary: Does the Middle East & North Africa Region Experience 'Conflict Traps'?

Core Content

The MNA Fast Brief explores the concept of 'conflict traps' in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, examining whether the cycle of conflict and its recurrence is as prevalent as in other parts of the world. It emphasizes the complex interplay between economic and political factors in sustaining conflict and undermining development.

Main Points

Conflict Trap Concept

• Conflict is a self-perpetuating cycle, where initial conflict factors are reinforced by violence, trapping countries in a difficult-to-break cycle.
• Collier et al. (2003) noted that the risk of new war is significantly higher immediately after a conflict ends, but decreases over time with sustained peace.

Governance in MENA

• Economic factors are less significant in driving conflict in the MENA region compared to other regions.
• Governance quality plays a more pivotal role in conflict risk, with countries having poor governance being more prone to conflict recurrence.
• Positive governance ratings are associated with a 30–50% lower risk of conflict recurrence.

Political Conflict Traps

• Political conflict traps are characterized by the reinforcement of authoritarianism through conflict.
• Leaders often increase repression and narrow political expression, leading to the establishment of "garrison states".
• This dynamic persists even after conflict, as leaders fear losing control to opposition.

Impact on Economic and Social Development

• Political conflict traps can limit economic growth and reduce public spending on non-security sectors (e.g., health, education).
• They contribute to widespread discontent and may lead to protests, riots, or civil war.
• The lack of legitimate channels for expression exacerbates these issues.

Role of Natural Resources

• Natural resource revenues (rents) are a key factor in maintaining autocracy and weak governance in the MENA region.
• Rentier states, which derive substantial income from resources, have less incentive to develop inclusive institutions or promote economic growth.
• These states are vulnerable to oil price shocks, which can increase conflict risk and hinder the development of new industries.

Integrated Conflict Dynamics

• The conflict trap in the MENA region is not solely economic or political but a dynamic interaction between the two.
• This interaction hinders growth and prevents genuine governance improvements.

Key Information

• Conflict Traps: A cycle where conflict reinforces itself, making it difficult to break.
• Governance Deficits: Weak governance increases conflict risk and is exacerbated by conflict.
• Resource Curse: Natural resource wealth can lead to autocracy and weak institutions, reducing the incentive for development.
• Political Contagion: Uprisings and political opposition in one country can influence others, creating opportunities for transformational changes.
• Case Studies: Tunisia and Egypt have experienced political transitions that challenge entrenched authoritarianism, but such changes are less common in the region.

Figures and Data

• Figure 1: Represents the global trend of replacing autocracy with democracy.
• Figure 2: Illustrates the continuation of autocracy in the MENA region, often through semi-democratic forms.

Conclusion

The conflict trap in the MENA region is multifaceted, involving both economic and political dynamics. While economic factors can contribute, governance quality and resource rents are more central to understanding conflict recurrence. Development actors must consider broader, integrated models to address these challenges effectively.

Contact Information

• Director, MNACS: Emmanuel Mbi
• Regional Knowledge and Learning Team: Omer Karasapan, Roby Fields, and Hafed Al-Ghwell
• Tel #: (202) 473 8177
• MNA K&L Fast Briefs: http://go.worldbank.org/OXADZV71I0

Note: The MNA Fast Briefs summarize lessons from MNA and other World Bank activities and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board, or its member countries.