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DGAP Policy Brief Summary: Sea Change for Europe's Security Order

Core Content

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a tectonic shift in Europe's security order, prompting Germany to declare a "Zeitenwende" (sea change) in its foreign and security policy. This event has not only disrupted the old geopolitical structures but also forced Europe to reevaluate its strategic, economic, and technological dependencies. DGAP outlines three future scenarios that could shape the new European security order: Confrontation, Coexistence, and Cooperation.

Main Viewpoints

• Russia's Role: Russia is likely to either become more isolated and push toward China, or face internal instability due to economic and political sanctions.
• European Unity: The success of Europe in shaping a new security order hinges on its unity in strategic areas such as defense, energy, climate, and technology.
• Security and Prosperity: Technological sovereignty and a strong, unified defense posture are essential for Europe's long-term security and prosperity.
• Climate and Energy: Climate protection and energy security are intertwined with geopolitical stability and must be prioritized in the new order.

Key Information

1. Three Future Scenarios

Confrontation

• Europe isolates Russia, pushing it toward China.
• Institutions like the NATO-Russian Council and the Council of Europe collapse.
• Europe becomes more self-reliant in defense and energy.
• A multi-speed Europe emerges, with varying levels of integration.
• China becomes Russia's main supplier of technology.
• European companies are required to implement climate measures globally.

Coexistence

• Europe reverts to its old weaknesses, with internal divisions and weak unity.
• Sanctions are gradually lifted, and trade with Russia resumes.
• EU member states may prioritize energy security over climate goals.
• NATO and the EU face challenges in burden sharing and maintaining a united front.
• The EU's European Neighborhood Policy is reactivated, but with limited success.

Cooperation

• Russia implodes due to economic sanctions, leading to internal instability.
• A new security treaty with Russia becomes possible, but only if the situation stabilizes.
• Europe may offer support to Russia in transitioning to renewables and stabilizing its economy.
• The EU launches initiatives to strengthen democracy and resilience in Eastern Europe.
• Climate protection goals are prioritized, with the EU on track to meet its targets by 2030.

2. Europe's New Security Foundations

• Defense and Integration: Germany's defense investments are seen as key to achieving closer European integration.
• Energy Security: Europe must reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels and natural gas, promoting renewable energy and diversifying suppliers.
• Climate Protection: Climate goals must be integrated into all aspects of the new security order.
• Geo-economic Resilience: Europe needs to restructure its economic dependencies and limit access to strategic technologies from authoritarian states.
• Geopolitical Resilience: The EU should expand its membership concept and engage countries within Russia's sphere of influence.

3. Strategic Priorities for Europe

• Fiscal and Economic Union: Strengthening internal financial and economic cohesion to support a new security order.
• Technological Sovereignty: Ensuring that Europe controls its technological development and reduces reliance on foreign suppliers.
• Renewables Transition: Accelerating the shift to renewable energy and building a secure trans-European power grid.
• Sanctions Management: Maintaining or reactivating sanctions against Russia to prevent its recovery and ensure long-term stability.

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine has created a pivotal moment for Europe's security order. The ability of Europe to unite and act strategically will determine its future role in global affairs. The three scenarios highlight the importance of a unified and proactive approach in defense, energy, and technology, while also cautioning against complacency and internal division. DGAP emphasizes that Europe must not only respond to the immediate crisis but also shape a sustainable and resilient security architecture for the long term.