2012年-世界发展银行全球_Turkey_-_Transport_Sector_Expenditure_Review___Synthesis_Report_81页_46mb

Summary of Turkey Transport Sector Expenditure Review

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the Turkish transport sector's expenditure and investment plans, focusing on efficiency, resource allocation, and the potential for private sector involvement. It highlights the importance of transport in Turkey's economic development and the challenges in ensuring that investments yield maximum returns.

Main Points

1. Transport Expenditure Trends

• Public investment in transport infrastructure in Turkey has nearly doubled from about 1% to nearly 2% of GDP over the past six years.
• Transport accounts for the majority of the increase in public investment, with its share in total public investment rising from 13% in 2004 to 36% in 2010.
• The government plans to increase transport spending to 4-5% of GDP over the next decade.

2. Infrastructure Expansion Plans

• The government aims to triple the country's highway network from 2,250 km to 7,500 km by 2023.
• Over 12,000 km of new divided roads and more than doubling the existing railway network to over 25,000 km are planned.
• A modal shift from road to rail is expected, primarily through investments in high-speed rail (up to 10,000 km of track).

3. Comparative Performance

• Turkey's transport and logistics performance is in line with other middle-income countries.
• The World Bank's Logistics Performance Index 2011 ranks Turkey 39th out of 155 countries.
• While transport infrastructure is better than some countries like Russia and Poland, it is relatively weaker in railways and maritime ports compared to the EU average.

4. Efficiency and Resource Management

• Transport demand is expected to grow faster than GDP due to urbanization and increased car ownership.
• There is a historical underinvestment in maintenance, with actual spending reaching only 45% of required levels between 2005 and 2010.
• The lack of a centralized transport master plan and budget monitoring system increases the risk of misallocation and inefficiency.

5. Private Sector Involvement

• The government aims to attract around 1% of GDP annually from the private sector through PPPs, mainly in the road sector.
• PPPs are most effective when demand is stable, risks are technical, and monitoring is straightforward.
• Current PPP models in the road sector transfer too much risk to the government and offer limited incentives for private sector cost recovery.

6. Challenges and Recommendations

• Overcapacity is a risk in road and passenger railway transport, particularly in the highway and divided road sectors.
• The privatization of ports and airports needs to be completed with a focus on increased competition and independent regulation.
• The Turkish Railway Company (TCDD) is inefficient and requires governance and management reforms.
• A regulatory framework aligned with the EU is essential for railway reform, as seen in the German example.

Key Information

Transport Expenditure Breakdown

• Roads: The largest share of transport investment, with planned expansion leading to potential overcapacity.
• Railways: Expected to see increased investment, especially in high-speed rail, but requires significant cost efficiency improvements.
• Airports: Some successes in privatization, but challenges remain in ensuring long-term competitiveness.
• Ports: Significant investment planned, but private sector involvement needs to be supported by a robust regulatory framework.

Fiscal Constraints

• Fiscal space for increasing transport spending is limited, and the government must balance its investment plans with other priorities.
• At spending levels above 4% of GDP, the opportunity cost of misallocation becomes significant.

Efficiency Gains

• Efficiency gains can be achieved through:
  • Better inter-modal allocation of investments.
  • Improved resource management and maintenance spending.
  • Structural reforms in transport SOEs and the introduction of competitive PPP models.

Private Sector Role

• Private sector involvement is crucial for cost recovery and efficiency, particularly in airports and ports.
• Road PPPs need to be restructured to reduce government risk and increase private sector incentives.
• The government should consider the use of tolls for cost recovery in high-density motorways.

Policy Options

Inter-modal Connectivity

• Ensure that investments in different transport modes are aligned to support inter-modal connectivity.
• Prioritize high-impact projects that can enhance economic growth and reduce regional disparities.

Budgeting and Implementation

• Establish a centralized transport master plan and improve budget monitoring and execution.
• Conduct rigorous cost-benefit analysis for individual projects to ensure strategic prioritization.

Private Sector Financing

• Develop a robust regulatory framework to support PPPs, particularly in ports and airports.
• Reform the governance and management structure of transport SOEs to improve efficiency and cost control.

Maintenance and Rehabilitation

• Increase spending on maintenance to ensure the long-term sustainability of infrastructure.
• Address the historical underinvestment in maintenance, which has led to lower economic returns.

Railway Reform

• Align the legislative framework with EU standards to facilitate railway reform.
• Consider the German model for restructuring, which includes infrastructure separation and open access.

Conclusion

The Turkish authorities have made significant progress in transport investment, but ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of these investments requires careful planning, robust budgeting, and smart risk sharing. The potential for private sector involvement is promising, but it must be supported by sound regulatory and institutional frameworks. Improving maintenance, enhancing inter-modal connectivity, and reforming transport SOEs are critical to maximizing the returns from public investment in the transport sector.