2000年-世界发展银行全球_Nepal___Public_Expenditure_Review_Volume_4_Transport_Sector_58页_3mb

Nepal Public Expenditure Review: Transport Sector Summary

Core Content

This report, titled Nepal Public Expenditure Review (PER), Volume IV: Transport Sector, provides a comprehensive analysis of the transportation infrastructure sector in Nepal, focusing on road and civil aviation. It outlines the sector's performance, budget allocations, resource mobilization, and implementation challenges, with recommendations for improvement.

Main Points

1. Transport Sector Overview

• Road Network: Expanded significantly from 2,000 km in the mid-1960s to nearly 12,000 km by 1997, but 17 out of 75 districts remain inaccessible by motorized vehicles.
• Civil Aviation: Nepal has 44 airports, with Tribhuvan International Airport (TIA) as the main hub. Many remote areas rely on air transport due to poor road connectivity.
• Sector Importance: Transport is recognized as a key driver for economic growth and poverty reduction.

2. Sector Planning

• Priority Investment Plan (PIP): Developed in 1997 with IDA assistance, it aimed to rationalize road investments for 1997–2006.
• Ninth Plan (1998–2002): The road development budget was Rs.23 billion, which is considered overly optimistic due to resource constraints and weak implementation capacity.
• Coordination Gaps: The PIP and the Agricultural Perspective Plan (APP) have planning gaps that require alignment.

3. Budget Allocations

• Road Sector:
  • Average annual budget allocation is 10% of total budget expenditures.
  • In FY98/99, the total road development budget was Rs.5.1 billion, with Rs.1.3 billion for new construction and Rs.3.3 billion for rehabilitation and maintenance (75% donor-funded).
  • Actual expenditures were consistently below allocations, averaging 72% of the annual budget.
• Airport Sector:
  • Budget allocations were about Rs.670 million during 1993/94 to 1997/98, with development budgets accounting for about Rs.580 million.
  • Allocations have increased to support the establishment of CAAN.
  • Actual expenditures averaged 78% of the allocated budget, similar to the road sector, due to over-programming and delays.

4. Resource Mobilization

• Road Fund Board: Efforts are ongoing to create a joint government/private sector board to oversee road user funds and improve financial sustainability.
• Private Sector Participation: Encouraged in the airport and road sectors, though not realistic for major road projects in the near future.
• Local Resource Mobilization: Local governments are expected to take on more responsibilities, but they lack the capacity and expertise to do so effectively.

5. Decentralization

• Decentralization Framework: Implemented since 1992, transferring responsibilities from central to local governments.
• Local Development Acts: Aim to empower local governments, but implementation of the 1993 Decentralization Act and the 1999 Self Governance Act has been limited.
• Local Ownership: Needed to improve institutional capacity and ensure effective use of resources.

6. Project Implementation Capacity

• HMGN's Role: The government needs to strengthen institutional capacity for effective project implementation.
• DOR and DOLIDAR: These agencies are working to improve road maintenance management and planning.
• CAAN: The Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal is transitioning from DCA, but lacks the necessary skills to operate autonomously.

7. Recommendations

• Sector Planning: Coordinate the PIP and APP to fill planning gaps and ensure a coherent strategy.
• Budget Allocations: Cap annual road budgets at realistic levels and increase institutional capacity.
• Resource Mobilization: Establish a sustainable road fund and improve financial controls.
• Project Implementation: Strengthen institutional and implementation capacities in both road and airport sectors.
• Decentralization: Support local governments with capacity-building and monitoring mechanisms.
• CAAN: Provide continued support until it achieves financial sustainability and regulatory autonomy.

Key Information

• Currency Exchange Rate: Increased from 12.00 NRs/US$ in 1980 to 68.25 NRs/US$ in 1999.
• GNP Per Capita (1998): $210.
• Economic Growth (FY86–90 to FY95–99): Annual growth rate ranged from 4.8% to 5.6%.
• Gross Domestic Investment: 19.4% of GDP in FY99.
• Current Account Balance: Negative, indicating a trade deficit.
• External Debt (1998): US$2,646 million.
• Debt Service Ratio (1998): 7.1% of current receipts.
• Gross Reserves (end of FY99): 1,128 billion NRs.
• Social Indicators:
  • Poverty: 42% of the population (national headcount index).
  • Health Expenditure: 1.2% of GDP.
  • Education Expenditure: 2.8% of GNP.
  • Access to Safe Water: 59% of the population.
  • Life Expectancy: 57 years (total), 58 years (male), 57 years (female).
  • Child Malnutrition: 47% (under 5 years).
  • Immunization Rate: Measles at 85%, DPT at 78%.
• Road Maintenance Cost: Estimated at Rs.1.0 billion annually.
• Airport Sustainability: Expected to be financially self-sustaining after two years of operation, but currently reliant on government subsidies.

Conclusion

The transport sector in Nepal is crucial for economic development and poverty reduction. However, challenges in budget allocation, implementation capacity, and financial sustainability persist. Coordination between sectors, institutional strengthening, and effective decentralization are essential for improving the effectiveness of public expenditures in transport.