2023-10-26-莱坊-M25_Offices_Q3_2023_7页_3mb

报告摘要

M25 & South East Office Market Report: Q3 2023 Summary

Key Findings

Occupier Market:
- Total take-up for the region stood at 870,831 sq ft, marginally above the long-term quarterly average, considered respectable but not exceptional.
- Takes in Q3 reversed the downward trend of Q2, rising by 37% compared to Q2 2023, reaching the highest quarterly total for 2023.
- Demand (named), estimated at over 5.5 million sq ft, remains active, with strong interest across other key South East markets, driven by impending lease events.
- Supply remains stable, with the development pipeline set to increase due for delivery (4.9 million sq ft target before 2026) but hampered by rising costs.
- Vacancy rate edged up to 7.9% by quarter-end (unchanged from previous quarter Q3 start), slightly above the long-term trend of 7.3%. For new and Grade A space, vacancy was stable at 5.8%.
- Prime office rents in Q3 fell by 25 bps to 6.75%, with yields extending the outward shift anticipated due to high debt costs and economic factors.
Investment Market:
- Investment volumes were low in Q3, the lowest quarterly total for 2023 (£111.3 million across 15 deals).
- Primarily smaller-sized deals and off-market transactions dominated. Institutional capital was largely absent, with private property companies accounting for 39% of the volume, private investors 22%, private equity platforms 23%, and secondary capital 16%.
- Prime net initial yields softened by 25 bps over Q3, reaching 6.75% by quarter-end. A busy final quarter and higher levels of stock warrant a bottoming out of value erosion.
- Key transactions involved secondary capital deals and sales of mixed-quality stock (e.g., University for the Creative Arts freehold).
Development / Supply:
- Developer activity continued to escalate, with 1.2 million sq ft of space under offer by quarter-end (partially previously let/acquired). Supply pipeline remains constrained by rising costs.
- Construction starts in Cambridge and Oxford reached 1.35 million sq ft, with delivery scheduled before Q4 2025.

Key Highlights by Area

Cambridge/Oxford: Dominated Q3 leasing activity and attracted most interest. High-quality (primary/prime space) office takes were strong. Development pipeline significant.
South East Broader Market: Showed signs of increasing optimism beyond Core SE. Longer-term supply still minimal, investment market appears to be recalibrating.
Prime vs. Secondary Stock: Prime space remains highly sought after, justifying higher yields. Prime net initial yields increased significantly on secondary deals this quarter.