20150917-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_367kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - September 17, 2015

Core Content

The document provides a financial overview and market insights for the Philippines on September 17, 2015, including key economic indicators, company updates, and analyst recommendations. It also includes a detailed table of earnings and valuations for various stocks.

Main Economic Indicators

PSEi: Closed at 7,093.92 with a 0.07% change.
Turnover (PHPm): 7,068.90 with a -89.13% change.
PLDT ADR (USD): 50.72 with a 2.26% change.
PLDT ADR (PHP): 2,366.09 with a 2.00% change.
Ave interbank rate: 2.50 with a -3.13 bps change.
PHP/USD rate: 46.70 with a 0.09% change.

Key Economic Insights

Current Account Surplus: Remains strong despite slower growth in OFW remittances. The current account surplus is supported by sustained growth in the IT-BPO industry.
OFW Remittances: Grew by 4.8% YoY in the first seven months of 2015, slightly below the 5-6% expectation for the year. The stronger peso compared to the US dollar may have contributed to the slower growth.
IT-BPO Industry Growth: Continued to grow at a double-digit rate, projected to reach USD25b in yearly revenue by 2016. By 2017, it is expected to surpass OFW remittances if the latter grows at less than 5% annually.
El Niño Impact: Expected to cause below-normal rainfall and reduce water pressure in certain areas of Metro Manila and Rizal province starting September 21. This may affect water supply and necessitate conservation measures.
Peso Strength: May have tempered the growth of OFW remittances, but the current account surplus is likely to remain robust due to IT-BPO earnings.

Market Talk Highlights

Consumer Sector

PGOLD: Amended its articles of incorporation to include pharmaceutical and medical goods sales, in line with FDA regulations. This does not involve the standalone drug stores previously acquired by its parent company, Cosco Capital Inc.

Utilities Sector

MWC (Manila Water Co): Customers will experience reduced water pressure during off-peak hours due to El Niño.
EDC (Energy Development Corp): Considering international drilling in Indonesia, following its Chile venture. Budget for exploration is close to USD45m.
SMC Global Power: Planning to build a 300MW clean coal facility in Panay and a 300MW power plant in Cebu. These projects are expected to be completed in 2016.

Telcos Sector

Globe Telecom (GLO) and Xurpas (X) formalized a strategic partnership. X invested PHP900m for a 51% equity stake in Yondu Inc, a subsidiary of Globe Telecom. This partnership is expected to strengthen their position in the mobile internet and digital space.

Analysts

Luz Lorenzo (Head of Research / Economist)
Michael Bengson
Rommel Rodrigo
Lovell Sarreal
Katherine Tan

Top Idea

Current Account Surplus: Expected to remain stable, driven by IT-BPO revenues.
OFW Remittances: Projected to grow within expectations, but at a slower rate compared to previous years.
IT-BPO Growth: Sustained double-digit growth, potentially exceeding OFW remittances by 2017 if remittances continue to grow at less than 5% annually.

The Week Ahead

Sept 17: Filsyn Corporation
Sept 24: Manila Broadcasting Company
Sept 25: STI Education Systems Holdings, Inc.
Sept 30: PAL Holdings, Inc.

Earnings and Valuations Table (Summary)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Recommendation	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	99.85	117.00	17	BUY	22,466	6.27	0.9	15.9	2.10	2.1	48.56	2.1	-	1.3	13.5
BPI	83.15	94.00	13	HOLD	18,039	4.62	-10.9	18.0	0.91	1.1	36.64	2.3	-	1.4	14.5
CHIB	42.60	47.00	10	HOLD	5,116	2.85	-5.9	14.9	1.00	2.3	29.71	1.4	-	1.2	10.2
EW	19.90	27.00	36	BUY	2,073	1.84	0.9	10.8	-	-	19.01	1.0	-	1.3	13.8
MBT	84.85	100.00	18	BUY	19,614	7.15	-10.9	11.9	1.00	1.2	50.49	1.7	-	1.3	13.0
PBB	17.26	15.00	-13	HOLD	4,74	1.11	-52.8	21.6	0.15	2.9	2.70	2.4	-	1.2	13.6
PNB	55.40	77.00	39	HOLD	5,359	4.34	-8.5	12.8	0.18	1.0	66.02	0.8	-	1.3	10.7
RCB	32.30	55.00	70	BUY	3,969	3.11	-8.1	10.4	1.00	1.2	37.47	1.4	-	1.2	10.9
SECB	142.60	185.00	30	BUY	7,164	11.88	42.9	15.4	0.15	1.0	19.01	1.0	-	1.3	14.4
UBP	53.60	66.00	23	HOLD	8,401	7.94	-6.9	6.8	2.67	1.2	42.10	1.3	-	1.0	13.8

Additional Stock Highlights

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Recommendation	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
JFC	187.70	215.00	15	BUY	5,362	5.03	13.3	10.8	-	-	25.49	2.4	-	1.0	15.8
PIP	4.06	4.60	13	HOLD	811	0.22	-10.2	18.5	-	-	2.16	1.9	-	0.6	10.7
RFM	4.04	5.60	39	BUY	5,710	0.67	12.7	8.1	0.10	2.2	5.68	0.9	-	0.7	11.2
VLL	5.43	8.40	55	BUY	5,710	0.67	12.7	8.1	0.10	2.2	5.68	0.9	-	0.7	11.2

Key Figures and Trends

Figure 1: Weaker PHP/USD rate encourages faster OFW remittances growth.
Figure 2: External surplus growing despite smaller remittances contribution.
Figure 3: IT-BPO revenues grow at a sustained robust rate.
Figure 4: Earnings and valuations table (as of 16 September 2015).

Conclusion

The document highlights the resilience of the Philippines' current account surplus despite slower OFW remittances, driven by the IT-BPO sector's sustained growth. It also outlines key developments in the consumer, utilities, and telcos sectors, along with analyst recommendations and upcoming events. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with several stocks recommended for investment based on their growth potential and valuations.

展开完整摘要