20140829-大华银行-Regional_Morning_Notes_66页_3mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 29 August 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of stock performance and company results for various firms across China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and key market indices. It includes financial performance data, analyst recommendations, key assumptions, corporate events, and valuation metrics for the listed companies.

China

Company Results

Air China (753 HK)
- 1H14: Operating profit rose 64.3% yoy to Rmb2,344m, driven by increasing international traffic, cargo recovery, and government grants.
- Key Financials: Revenue grew 8.5% yoy to Rmb49,932m. Net profit (excl forex) surged 4740.9% to Rmb1,231m.
- Valuation: Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$6.00 (upside +25.2%).
- Key Metrics: Operating margin improved to 4.7%, net margin rose to 3.6%, and ROE reached 6.8%.
- Outlook: Lowered sales commission and currency stabilisation expected to improve margins in 2H14.
- Risks: Further yield erosion remains a key risk.
China Mengniu (2319 HK)
- 1H14: Net profit increased 40% yoy to Rmb1.05b, in line with expectations. Sales grew 25% yoy to Rmb25.8b.
- Key Financials: Gross margin expanded to 32.4%, core EBITDA margin improved to 7.4%.
- Valuation: Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$42.30 (upside +19.4%).
- Key Metrics: Net margin rose to 3.8%, P/B dropped to 2.6x, and EV/EBITDA fell to 18.4x.
- Outlook: Lower raw milk costs and product premiumisation offset higher adspend.
China Merchants Holdings (144 HK)
- 1H14: Earnings grew 11.1% yoy, in line with expectations.
- Valuation: HOLD with a target price of HK$27.72.
China Minsheng Bank (1988 HK)
- 1H14: Results in line, but lower-than-expected credit costs may not be sustained.
- Valuation: HOLD with a target price of HK$8.20.
China National Offshore Oil Company (883 HK)
- 1H14: Net profit fell 2.3% yoy to Rmb33.6b but exceeded consensus by 12%.
- Valuation: BUY with a target price of HK$17.70.
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (3800 HK)
- 1H14: Results in line with successful cost reduction and margin improvement.
- Valuation: BUY with a target price of HK$3.50.
PetroChina (857 HK)
- 1H14: Net profit rose 4% yoy to Rmb68.1b.
- Valuation: BUY with a target price of HK$12.40.
MicroPort Scientific Corporation (853 HK)
- 1H14: Downgraded to SELL due to consolidation losses from OrthoRecon.
- Valuation: Target price reduced to HK$4.00.
Xingda International Holdings (1899 HK)
- 1H14: Results in line but ASP and margin outlook turned sour.
- Valuation: Downgraded to HOLD with a target price of HK$3.00.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17079.6	-0.2	0.2	0.6	3.0
S&P 500	1996.7	-0.2	0.2	0.9	8.0
FTSE 100	6805.8	-0.4	0.7	0.3	0.8
AS30	5621.3	-0.5	-0.2	0.7	5.0
CSI 300	2311.3	-0.7	-1.8	-0.9	-0.8
FSSTI	3330.2	-0.3	0.2	-0.8	5.1
HSCEI	10931.6	-1.3	-0.1	-1.7	1.1
HSI	24741.0	-0.7	-1.0	0.4	6.2
JCI	5184.5	0.4	-0.4	1.9	21.3
KLCI	1875.7	0.2	0.0	-0.1	0.5
Nikkei 225	15459.9	-0.5	-0.8	-1.0	-5.1
SET	1559.1	-0.4	0.5	2.5	20.0
TWSE	9478.4	-0.1	2.4	0.9	10.1
BDI	1119	5.3	5.5	50.6	-50.9
CPO (RM/mt)	2022	0.8	-1.7	-13.8	-21.4
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl)	95	-0.0	0.9	-6.4	-4.0

Top Picks

Ticker	Price (HK$)	Target Price (HK$)	Upside (%)
CNBM	3323 HK	7.54	5.5
ICBC	1398 HK	6.15	19.6
Gamuda	GAM MK	5.60	15.7
DBS	DBS SP	22.68	26.3
Pacific	PACRA SP	1.76	21.4
Bangkok Bank	BBL TB	237.00	15.0
PTT	PTT TB	360.00	12.1

Key Assumptions

Metric	2014F	2015F
GDP Growth (% yoy)	7.3	7.3
Brent (US$/bbl)	110	110
Aluminium (US$/mt)	1,713	1,650
Copper (US$/mt)	6,866	6,850
Gold (US$/ounce)	1,321	1,400
Iron Ore (US$/mt)	103	95
CPO (US$/mt)	788	848
BDI	1,500	1,800

Indonesia

Sector Outlook: Neutral stance on Indonesian planters. Downgraded to MARKET WEIGHT.

Malaysia

Company Results

Barakah Offshore Petroleum (BARAKAH MK): 9MFY14 results in line with expectations. Expected stronger 2H14 performance due to profit recognition from large projects and better margins.
Genting (GENT MK): 2Q14 lower volume and luck factor in Malaysia and UK operations.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): UK operations turned negative due to lower volume and luck.
Malayan Banking (MAY MK): 1H14 results below expectations due to slower business and corporate loan growth, along with higher effective tax rate.
Sunway (SWB MK): 2Q14 earnings growth still intact.

Singapore

Company Results

IHHealthcare (IHHP): 2Q14 results in line, but downgraded to SELL due to rich valuations.
Wing Tai Holdings (WINGT SP): FY14 results in line, with potential for improved performance.

Thailand

Update

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BGH TB): Acquisition of PKI is a good deal and strengthens BGH's position in southern Thailand. Target price raised to Bt22.50.

Corporate Events

China Pioneer Pharma Holdings Corporate Roadshow: Hong Kong, 29 Aug.
361 Degrees Luncheon: Hong Kong, 2 Sep.
Top Glove Corporate Roadshow: Montreal, 2 Sep.
China Healthcare Sector Analyst Presentation: Taipei, 3 Sep; Singapore, 8 Sep; Kuala Lumpur, 10 Sep.
China Traditional Chinese Medicine Corporate Roadshow: Taipei, 3 Sep; Singapore, 4 Sep; Kuala Lumpur, 5 Sep; Hong Kong, 8 Sep.
International Housewares Retail Luncheon: Hong Kong, 4 Sep.
Xinchen China Power Luncheon: Hong Kong, 5 Sep.
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Corporate Roadshow: Singapore, 8 Sep; Kuala Lumpur, 9 Sep; Hong Kong, 11 Sep.
Xingda Corporate Roadshow: Taipei, 22 Sep.
CIFI Holdings Corporate Roadshow: London, 25 Sep; Milan, 26 Sep.
Asian Gems Conference: Singapore, 8-9 Oct.

Summary of Key Points

Main Points

Air China: Strong operating profit growth, low P/B, potential for FFP monetisation, and cargo recovery. Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$6.00.
China Mengniu: Strong sales growth driven by premium products and lower raw milk costs. Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$42.30.
PetroChina: Net profit increased by 4% yoy. BUY recommendation with a target price of HK$12.40.
Malayan Banking: Results below expectations due to slower business growth and higher tax rate.
Indonesia Plantation Sector: Neutral stance with a downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT.
Thailand: BGH's acquisition of PKI is positive, with target price raised.

Key Risks

Air China: Further yield erosion.
China Mengniu: Overly optimistic adspend costs and inventory concerns.

Valuation Highlights

Air China: P/B at 1.0x, EV/EBITDA at 8.0x.
China Mengniu: P/B at 2.6x, EV/EBITDA at 18.4x.

Outlook

Air China: Continued growth from international traffic and cargo recovery.
China Mengniu: Expected to maintain strong performance with product premiumisation and cost control.
Malaysia: Stronger 2H14 performance expected from profit recognition and margin improvement.
Indonesia: Neutral outlook due to market conditions.
Thailand: Positive impact from BGH's acquisition.