2016年-世界发展银行全球_Supporting_Growth_and_Stability_in_Afghanistan___The_Country_Partnership_Framework_Summary_2017_to_2020_15页_783kb

Afghanistan Country Partnership Framework Summary 2017 to 2020

Core Content

The Afghanistan Country Partnership Framework (CPF) 2017-2020 outlines the World Bank Group's strategy to support long-term growth and stability in Afghanistan. It is a joint strategy involving the International Development Association (IDA), International Finance Corporation (IFC), and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The CPF is designed to address the country's complex development challenges, including fragility, conflict, and high poverty levels, while promoting sustainable growth and social inclusion.

Main Objectives

The CPF focuses on three main pillars:

1. Building Strong and Accountable Institutions
2. Supporting Inclusive Growth
3. Deepening Social Inclusion

These pillars are aligned with the Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework (ANPDF) and aim to strengthen governance, promote economic growth, and improve social outcomes.

Key Points

Economic Overview

• Afghanistan experienced rapid economic growth (9.4% annually) between 2003 and 2012, driven by reconstruction, aid, and agricultural surges.
• Growth slowed significantly between 2013 and 2015, averaging 3.7%, 1.3%, and 0.8% respectively.
• Per capita GDP increased from $230 in 2003 to $680 in 2014.
• Growth is expected to rise gradually to 3.8% by 2020, but remains insufficient to meet labor market demands and reduce poverty.

Poverty and Inequality

• Poverty remains high, affecting 36% of the population during the period of growth, rising to nearly 40% in 2014.
• Female-headed households are disproportionately affected.
• Regional disparities are significant, with the highest poverty rates in the Northeast, West Central, and East regions.
• The urban-rural poverty gap has remained stable, but urban areas are seeing an increase in the number of poor people due to migration.
• Inequality has increased, and vulnerability to weather-related shocks is acute, particularly among poorer households.

Climate and Natural Disasters

• Nearly half of households affected by shocks use harmful coping mechanisms, such as selling assets or withdrawing children from school.
• Climate change is expected to increase these vulnerabilities.
• The CPF includes measures to improve resilience to climate variability and natural disasters, such as promoting sustainable renewables and developing early warning systems.

Social Challenges

• Undernutrition is a critical issue, with 41% of children under five stunted.
• Access to quality education and health services is limited, especially in lagging areas.
• Internal displacement and returnees have placed additional pressure on government and community resources.

International Aid and Domestic Revenue

• International aid and security expenditures have declined, with total aid and security spending expected to drop from 59% of GDP in 2013 to 44% by 2018.
• Domestic revenue mobilization has weakened, though it improved in 2015.
• More aid should be channeled through the national budget to ensure coordination and prioritization.

World Bank Group Role

• The World Bank Group is the administrator of the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF) and provides IDA-funded projects.
• IDA has committed over $3.34 billion since 2002, with more than $2.9 billion in grants and $436.4 million in no-interest loans.
• The Bank Group has 16 active IDA projects in Afghanistan with a net commitment value of over $1.3 billion.
• IFC and MIGA will support private sector development and investment risk mitigation.

Key Drivers of Fragility

• Weak state and political institutions: Lack of clear mandates and accountability, with elites benefiting disproportionately from economic resources.
• Persistent Taliban insurgency: Exacerbated by poor governance and external influences.
• Internal ethnic divisions: Deepened by conflict and patronage-based resource distribution.

Strategic Aims

• The CPF seeks to balance immediate needs with long-term investments.
• It aims to:
  • Strengthen government capacity and public financial management.
  • Promote inclusive growth, especially in lagging areas and urban informal settlements.
  • Deepen social inclusion through improved human development outcomes and resilience-building.

Program Activities

• Building Strong and Accountable Institutions:

  • Supports recurrent budget and public expenditure management.
  • Aims to build a professional civil service and capable municipalities.
  • Focuses on governance reforms and anti-corruption measures.

• Supporting Inclusive Growth:

  • Focuses on agricultural productivity and extractive industries.
  • Supports micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and improves the business environment.
  • Promotes regional integration and infrastructure development.

• Deepening Social Inclusion:

  • Enhances access to health and education, especially for women and marginalized groups.
  • Develops social safety nets and disaster risk mitigation systems.
  • Includes gender-focused initiatives and support for women's economic empowerment.

Gender Focus

• Several projects have a specific gender component, including:
  • 30% quota for women in civil service positions.
  • Women's representation in Community Development Councils.
  • Over 67,000 beneficiaries of the Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Project include women.
  • The Women's Economic Empowerment pilot project and the New Market Development Project include targeted support for women.

Financial Commitments

• IDA and ARTF: Annual commitments are approximately $200 million and $900 million, respectively.
• IDA: Expected to increase allocations in Afghanistan and other fragile contexts.
• IFC: Aims to expand its commitment from $54 million to $80 million over 2017-2020.
• MIGA: Will support investment in key sectors, including finance, manufacturing, and infrastructure.

Challenges and Risks

• High political and security risks: The NUG coalition is politically unstable, and the insurgency continues to expand.
• Fragility and conflict: These remain major challenges, affecting governance and service delivery.
• Economic sustainability: Declining aid and rising security costs threaten fiscal stability and growth.

Conclusion

The CPF is a comprehensive strategy that seeks to address Afghanistan's development challenges through a multi-faceted approach. It emphasizes the need for institutional reform, inclusive growth, and social inclusion, while recognizing the risks posed by fragility, conflict, and declining aid. The World Bank Group remains committed to supporting Afghanistan's development agenda, with a focus on long-term stability and sustainable growth.