2016-2021全球趋势报告（英文）_28页-3mb

2016-2021 Global Trends Summary

Core Content

The A.T. Kearney Global Business Policy Council (GBPC) identified five key macro trends that are expected to significantly influence the global operating environment from 2016 to 2021. These trends include the rise of populism, the potential transformation of Latin America, the global labor market tipping point, the shift toward "peak stuff" consumerism, and the imminent CRISPR revolution.

Main Trends and Key Points

1. Rising Storm of Populism

• Overview: Populism, characterized by a rejection of elites and the status quo, is gaining momentum globally, fueled by economic inequality, migration, and digital media.
• Manifestation: Examples include the Brexit vote, Trump's 2016 campaign, and the rise of populist parties in Europe and the Global South.
• Roots: Inequality within countries, increased global migration, and the spread of information through social media have intensified populist sentiment.
• Outlook: Populism is likely to continue and intensify over the next five years, leading to more protectionist policies and regulatory uncertainty.
• Business Implications:
  • Protectionism: Increased risk of trade and investment restrictions.
  • Policy Volatility: Greater uncertainty in government policies, including higher taxes, immigration restrictions, and financial regulations.
  • Human Resources Management: Challenges in managing a diverse and politically divided workforce.

2. Latin America of the Future?

• Overview: Latin America is undergoing a political shift toward centrist, pro-business leaders, potentially leading to a new economic era.
• Economic Context: The region has historically been linked to the US but is increasingly looking to China and the Asia-Pacific for growth.
• Political Shift: The decline of leftist governments, due to economic challenges and public dissatisfaction with corruption and social programs.
• Outlook: The success of centrist leaders will determine whether Latin America can achieve sustained economic growth and stability.
• Business Implications:
  • Middle-class Consumers: A growing and solidified middle class presents new market opportunities.
  • Social Unrest: Potential for social unrest due to ongoing public frustration with governance and policy outcomes.
  • Investment Opportunities: Governments seeking investment to diversify economies and boost growth offer opportunities for firms in natural resources and privatization sectors.

3. Global Labor Market Tipping Point

• Overview: The global labor market is reaching a critical point, with aging populations and declining participation rates affecting workforce availability.
• Trends:
  • The working-age population (15-74 years) is expected to stabilize at around 70-72% of the global population.
  • The median global age is rising, with the global population expected to be over 30 years by 2021.
  • Labor force participation rates are declining, particularly in developed and emerging markets.
• Outlook: Labor shortages and reduced participation will likely continue, especially in aging economies like Japan and Germany.
• Business Implications:
  • Labor Shortages: Increased costs and challenges in finding skilled labor.
  • Surplus Labor: Countries with low participation rates may struggle to provide employment opportunities.
  • Workforce Management: Businesses need to adapt to an aging and less globalized labor market.

4. "Peak Stuff" Consumerism

• Overview: Consumer behavior in developed markets is shifting toward valuing experiences over physical goods.
• Drivers: Cultural attitudes promoting a "less is more" lifestyle and a focus on sustainability and quality of life.
• Outlook: This trend is expected to continue, reshaping consumer preferences and market demands.
• Business Implications:
  • Opportunities for Services: Growth in service industries due to increased demand for experiences.
  • Challenges for Retail: Traditional product-based businesses may face declining demand and need to adapt their strategies.

5. Imminent CRISPR Revolution

• Overview: CRISPR technology is revolutionizing biotechnology and has the potential to impact multiple industries.
• Impact: It is reducing the cost and time for scientific breakthroughs, with wide-ranging effects on business models, regulations, and consumer behavior.
• Outlook: The technology is expected to continue driving innovation and transformation across sectors.
• Business Implications:
  • Regulatory Changes: Businesses must prepare for evolving regulations around genetic modification.
  • Consumer Preferences: Shifts in consumer demand due to new health and agricultural applications.
  • Innovation Opportunities: Companies in biotech, agriculture, and healthcare can benefit from CRISPR advancements.

Key Information

• The five trends are based on an annual assessment by the GBPC of global strategic operating environments.
• These trends are expected to have long-term implications for business strategies, government policies, and consumer behavior.
• Businesses are advised to monitor these trends closely to mitigate risks and identify new opportunities.
• The trends reflect a broader shift in global economic, political, and social dynamics, emphasizing the need for agility and foresight in strategic planning.