2021-05-31-IRENA-Renewable_Power_Generation_Costs_in_2020_180页_50mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020" by IRENA

Core Content

This report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) provides a comprehensive analysis of the cost trends for renewable power generation technologies from 2010 to 2020, highlighting the significant decline in costs and the increasing economic competitiveness of renewables.

Main Renewable Technologies Analyzed

Onshore Wind
Offshore Wind
Solar Photovoltaics (PV)
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
Hydropower
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Renewable Heat (Solar Thermal)

Key Findings

1. Cost Trends in 2020

The cost of electricity from onshore wind fell by 13% year-on-year.
The cost of electricity from offshore wind fell by 9% year-on-year.
The cost of electricity from utility-scale solar PV fell by 7% year-on-year.
The cost of electricity from CSP fell by 16% year-on-year.

2. Decade-Long Cost Declines (2010-2020)

Utility-scale solar PV saw an 85% decline in LCOE, from USD 0.381/kWh to USD 0.057/kWh.
CSP experienced a 68% decline in LCOE.
Onshore wind had a 56% decline in LCOE.
Offshore wind saw a 48% decline in LCOE.

3. Economic Competitiveness

Renewable power generation is now the default economic choice for new capacity.
The cost of electricity from solar and wind has fallen to levels that outcompete fossil fuels even without financial support.
800 GW of existing coal-fired capacity could be economically replaced by new renewables, saving up to USD 32 billion annually and reducing CO₂ emissions by 3 Gt per year.

4. Learning Rates and Technological Improvements

Solar and wind technologies exhibit remarkable learning rates, with costs falling rapidly due to improved technologies, economies of scale, and competitive supply chains.
Solar PV has seen the most significant cost reduction, with total installed costs dropping by 81% from USD 4,731/kW in 2010 to USD 883/kW in 2020.
Onshore wind total installed costs fell by 31%, from USD 1,971/kW to USD 1,355/kW.
Offshore wind total installed costs fell by 32%, from USD 4,706/kW to USD 3,185/kW.
CSP total installed costs fell by 50%, from USD 9,095/kW to USD 4,581/kW.

5. Capacity Factors and Efficiency

Solar PV capacity factors increased from 14% in 2010 to 16% in 2020.
Onshore wind capacity factors rose from 27% to 36%.
Offshore wind capacity factors increased slightly from 38% to 40%.
CSP capacity factors improved from 30% to 42%.
Hydropower capacity factors increased from 44% to 46%.
Geothermal capacity factors slightly decreased from 87% to 83%.

6. Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

Solar PV LCOE dropped by 85%, from USD 0.381/kWh to USD 0.057/kWh.
Onshore wind LCOE fell by 56%, from USD 0.089/kWh to USD 0.039/kWh.
Offshore wind LCOE fell by 48%, from USD 0.162/kWh to USD 0.084/kWh.
CSP LCOE fell by 68%, from USD 0.340/kWh to USD 0.108/kWh.
Hydropower LCOE increased by 18%, from USD 0.038/kWh to USD 0.044/kWh.
Geothermal LCOE increased by 45%, from USD 0.049/kWh to USD 0.071/kWh.
Bioenergy LCOE remained stable at 0.076/kWh.

7. Policy and Market Impacts

IRENA emphasizes that smart policy and industry focus have been key drivers of cost reductions.
Low-cost renewable hydrogen is highlighted as a promising future technology.
The report underscores the need for updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reflect the current cost realities of renewables.

8. Supporting Information

The report includes figures, tables, and boxes that provide detailed data on cost trends, learning curves, and specific market analyses.
IRENA's Renewable Cost Database is a key resource for the study, offering up-to-date cost and auction price data from global projects.

Key Message

Renewable power generation is now more cost-effective than fossil fuels, with solar and wind leading the way in cost reduction. The economic replacement of coal plants by renewables is becoming increasingly viable, and IRENA encourages countries to take advantage of this shift to accelerate the energy transition towards a 1.5°C climate pathway.

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