20121231-IRENA-Renewable_Power_Generation_Costs_in_2012_An_Overview_92页_3mb

Summary of Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012

TL;DR

Renewable energy costs continue to decline, making them increasingly competitive globally. Solar PV and wind technologies show the most significant cost reductions, while hydropower, geothermal, and biomass remain cost-effective in specific contexts with limited further reduction potential. Site-specific and regional factors, along with policy support, play a critical role in determining renewable energy competitiveness.

Key Insights

Cost Decline for Renewable Energies

• Solar PV Prices: Module prices dropped by 65% between 2010 and 2012, contributing to lower installed costs. Thin-film and crystalline silicon technologies are converging in price.

• Wind Energy: Wind turbine costs fell by about 25% from 2011-2012, benefiting from manufacturing scale and competition.

• Hydropower & Geothermal: These mature technologies show limited cost reduction potential, though they remain the lowest-cost options in many regions.

• Geographical Disparities: Costs vary significantly by region due to differences in feedstock availability, manufacturing capacity, feedstock diversity, and market development.

Main Conclusions

1. Renewable Revolution: Renewables are increasingly competitive, with solar PV and wind overtaking fossil fuels in grid parity in many regions.

2. Technology-Specific Insights:

   • Solar PV: Utility-scale costs reached as low as USD 0.10–0.20/kWh in competitive markets.

   • Wind: Onshore wind costs now range from USD 0.06 to USD 0.12/kWh.

   • Hydropower: Can be as cheap as USD 0.02/kWh at optimal sites.

   • Biomass: LCOE ranges from USD 0.06–0.30/kWh depending on feedstock and technology maturity.

3. Market Expansion: Renewables continue to dominate new power generation capacity additions globally.

Future Projections (2020)

• Continued cost reductions, particularly for Balance of System (BoS) components and operations & maintenance.
• CSP and solar PV are expected to see significant cost reductions by 2020 due to improved technology and economies of scale.
• Feedstock availability and reducing project development risks remain key challenges for sustained cost reductions.

Key Recommendations

• Policy Support: Implement transparent methodologies for cost data collection to facilitate informed decisions.
• Market Development: Focus on improving data availability and financing for renewable projects in underserved markets.
• Continuous Innovation: Invest in technology improvements to further reduce costs across all renewable sectors.

Methodology Notes

• Cost analysis is limited to private investor perspectives, excluding subsidies, system-wide benefits, or CO2 pricing.
• The 10% weighted average cost of capital is used for LCOE analysis to allow comparison.
• Regional and country-specific costs vary due to local feedstock availability, manufacturing capability, and regulatory frameworks.

IRENA's Role

IRENA continues its work on data collection, cost analysis, and fostering partnerships through the Renewable Costing Alliance to accelerate renewable deployment globally.

Source: IRENA Report 'Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012: An Overview'.