2012-05-31-IRENA-Renewable_Energy_Cost_Analysis_-_Biomass_for_Power_Generation_60页_2mb

IRENA Renewable Energy Cost Analysis: Volume 1 Power Sector Issue 5/5 Wind Power (June 2012)

Based on the submitted document, here is a summary of the key points:

About IRENA

• International Renewable Energy Agency promotes the adoption and sustainable use of renewable energy (bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar, wind).

Overall Report Objective

• To provide objective cost data and analysis for renewable energy technologies to support policy and investment decisions.
• Part of a five-report series (biomass, wind, hydropower, CSP, PV).
• Focuses on generating electricity cost (LCOE) rather than detailed project finance.

Key Cost Indicators Used

• Investment Costs: Equipment, site work, licensing, working capital, project development, finance costs.
• Operations and Maintenance (O&M): Variable and fixed costs per kWh.
• Feedstock Costs: Price per tonne of fuel.
• Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE): Average cost (USD/kWh) over the project lifetime, including all capital, O&M, and fuel costs, discounted to present value.

Current Technologies and Costs (Volume 1 - Biomass Power Generation Focus)

Biomass Combustion Technologies

• Stoker Boilers.
• Fluidised Bed Boilers (Bubbling and Circulating).
• Anaerobic Digestion.
• Biomass Gasification (atmospheric, pressurised).
• Co-firing (biomass with coal/natural gas).

Cost Analysis Details

• Installed Costs ($/kW):
  • Stoker Boiler: $1,880 - $4,260.
  • Bubbling/CFB Boiler: $2,170 - $4,500.
  • Fixed/Fluidised Bed Gasifier: $2,140 - $5,700.
  • Landfill Gas: $1,917 - $2,436.
  • Anaerobic Digesters: $2,574 - $6,104.
  • Co-firing: $140 - $850 ($ incremental investment).
• LCOE ($/kWh):
  • Stoker Boiler: $0.06 - $0.21.
  • Bubbling/CFB Boiler: $0.07 - $0.21.
  • Gasifier: $0.07 - $0.24.
  • Landfill Gas: $0.09 - $0.12.
  • Anaerobic Digester: $0.06 - $0.15.
  • Stoker CHP: $0.07 - $0.29 ($ higher due to heat). Anaerobic Digester CHP: $0.11 - $0.28.
  • Co-firing: $0.04 - $0.13 (mix dependent).
• Project Costs Structure:
  • Major components: Equipment, Fuel handling/preparation, Civils/road/GRID connection, Consultant/design.
  • Generator/converter system typically largest component.
  • Plants larger than ~30MW showed decreasing installed costs.

Feedstock Costs and Logistics

• Types: Agricultural residues, forestry residues, municipal waste, energy crops, wood waste, biogas (from AD/LFG), imported pellets.
• Cost Range ($/tonne & $/GJ): $10 (1GJ) to $160 (around).
• Variability: Highest for imported pellets; lower for local waste residues (e.g., bagasse/stover can be free or very low).
• Handling: Preparation costs vary significantly based on feedstock type, moisture, transport costs ( significant fraction of total delivered cost for many types). Dryer or densification reduces transport costs but increases fuel cost by $/GJ.
• Supply Chain: Lack of reliable integrated supply chains is a major barrier for large-scale projects, especially outside Scandinavia.

Market Trends

• Installs (End 2010): Total biomass installed capacity ~54-62 GW globally (representing ~1.2% of total power generation capacity).
• Feedstocks: Dominated by wood combustion.
• Future Projections: Potential growth to ~270 GW by 2030, requiring investment of ~USD 21-35 billion/year. Europe and North America are key players.
• Trade: Growing trade in wood chips (large scale) and pellets. Drivers: Agriculture residues (variable cost, key driver), supportive policies (especially feed-in tariffs or similar support mechanisms).

Policy and Deployment Challenges

• Technology Maturity: Many options mature (e.g., combustion), others less so (e.g., highly integrated gasification).
• Financial Models: Useful for screening projects but often complicated by project-specific (client, country, project type) financial assumptions.
• Investment Knowledge: There has been too little information historically to support accurate cost assessment.

Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

Methodology

• Discount rate assumed: 10%.
• Lifetime varied (e.g., 20-25 years).
• Capacity factor assumed: 85%.

Findings for Technologies

• Stoker/Energy Crops: Low LCOE ($0.05-0.10/kWh) with low feedstock cost.
• Stoker/Diesel/Gas/Landfill Gas: Average to high LCOE ($0.06-0.21/kWh) depending on fuel cost.
• Gasifier: Wide range, lowest $0.065 could compete with diesel, high might be competitive with gas if steam needed.
• CSP/PV/Hydro: Not covered in this specific report issue (this summary is for the biomass volume report).

Conclusions

• Biomass LCOE varies significantly by technology and feedstock (geographical competition).
• Lower costs achieved where sustained local fuel supply exists.
• Key variables: Feedstock Cost, Technology Cost. Feedstock cost often 40-50%.
• Increasingly displacing or supplementing (co-firing) fossil fuels.
• Ready applicability for various scales, especially off-grid/mini-grid options.
• Role likely to be defined by feedstock location and cost (which outweighs some technical/climatic effects).

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