印度尼西亚可再生能源前景（英文版）_106页_9mb

Renewable Energy Prospects in Indonesia: A Summary

Core Content

Indonesia, the largest country in ASEAN by energy consumption, is experiencing rapid growth in energy demand due to economic development, urbanization, and population increase. The country is projected to consume nearly 65% more energy between 2000 and 2014, and is expected to grow by an additional 80% by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. Despite this, Indonesia has begun integrating renewable energy into its energy mix and aims to achieve 23% of total primary energy supply (TPES) from renewables by 2025 and 31% by 2050, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement.

Main Renewable Energy Sources and Potential

Indonesia has significant potential for geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind, and bioenergy. These sources can support not only power generation but also heating, cooling, and transport applications. The REmap study highlights that the renewable energy share in total final energy consumption (TFEC) could increase from 6% today to 23% by 2030 with the implementation of REmap Options, and to 31% by 2050.

Key Renewable Energy Targets and Policies

• 2025 Target: 23% of TPES from modern renewables.
• 2050 Target: 31% of TPES from modern renewables.
• The government has set policies to promote renewable energy, including renewable energy targets and the development of the National Energy Policy (KEN) and Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL).

REmap Options and Their Impact

The REmap Options focus on increasing renewable energy use beyond the Reference Case, which assumes current policies and trends. These options include:

• Power Generation: Renewable energy share increases to 38% by 2030, compared to 29% in the Reference Case.
• Buildings: Renewable energy share in TFEC increases to 37% by 2030, up from 18% in the Reference Case.
• Industry: Renewable energy share in TFEC increases to 21% by 2030, compared to 15% in the Reference Case.
• Transport: Renewable energy share in TFEC increases to 18% by 2030, up from 3% today, with a focus on electric mobility.

Investment and Cost Considerations

• Annual Investment Needs: Under the Reference Case, average investment in renewable energy capacity is USD 9.4 billion (2015–2030). With REmap Options, this increases to USD 16.2 billion.
• Cost-Savings: The net cost reduction of the energy system is estimated at USD 1.7 billion per year (from a government perspective). Including energy subsidies and using a market discount rate, the cost is USD 1.1 billion per year.
• Economic Benefits: The net savings from reduced energy system costs, air pollution, and CO₂ emissions could reach USD 53 billion per year by 2030, equivalent to 1.7% of Indonesia's GDP.

Benefits of Renewable Energy Uptake

• Economic Savings: Renewable energy use could save USD 15.6 billion to USD 51.7 billion annually, including reductions in health costs from air pollution and climate change mitigation.
• Health and Environmental Gains: The REmap Options could reduce 150 million tonnes (Mt) of CO₂ emissions per year, valued at USD 2.2 billion to USD 10.7 billion annually based on carbon pricing.
• Job Creation: The renewable energy sector could create 1.3 million jobs by 2030, up from 100,000 today.
• Energy Security: By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, Indonesia can enhance its energy security and reduce imports of petroleum products.

Challenges in Renewable Energy Deployment

Power Sector Challenges

• Grid Integration: The fragmented nature of the grid, especially in remote areas, poses challenges for integrating variable renewable energy (VRE).
• Financial Barriers: Lack of bankable off-takers and limited project finance opportunities hinder renewable energy development.
• Land Acquisition: Uncertainty over land ownership and the high cost of land acquisition are major obstacles.
• Technology-Specific Issues: Limited awareness, insufficient local capacity, and complex permitting and regulatory frameworks challenge the deployment of solar, wind, and other technologies.

End-Use Sectors Challenges

• Buildings: Solar thermal for water heating and cooling has potential, but limited awareness and lack of design standards are barriers.
• Industry: Limited awareness of solar thermal applications for process heat and intermittent energy supply are challenges.
• Transport: While liquid biofuels (e.g., B30 and E20) are promoted, supply-side constraints and the need for electric mobility are key issues.

Key Opportunities

• Bioenergy: Despite its traditional use in rural areas, bioenergy can play a major role in industry and transport, with potential for 216 petajoules (PJ) of additional bioenergy use in industry and 70 PJ of solar thermal for process heat.
• Solar PV: Offers the highest potential, with REmap identifying 47 GW of installed capacity by 2030, compared to 9 GW in the Reference Case.
• Electric Mobility: With REmap, Indonesia could have 3 million electric four-wheeled vehicles and 42.5 million electric two- and three-wheelers on the road by 2030.
• Policy Synergies: Synergies exist between renewable energy and energy efficiency, which can be leveraged for greater impact.

Conclusion

Indonesia has the potential to lead the renewable energy transition in ASEAN and globally, especially if it adopts the REmap Options. These options would allow the country to achieve its 2050 renewable energy target as early as 2030, provided that policies and investments are accelerated. The benefits of renewable energy, including economic savings, health improvements, and job creation, far outweigh the costs. However, overcoming challenges in grid integration, financing, land acquisition, and technology deployment is critical to realizing this potential. IRENA supports Indonesia in this endeavor to build a sustainable, secure, and affordable energy system.