2010年-IMF国际货币组织全球_How_Did_Emerging_Markets_Cope_in_the_Crisis__47页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "How Did Emerging Markets Cope in the Crisis?"

Core Content

This paper by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Strategy, Policy, and Review Department examines the performance of emerging market economies (EMs) during the global financial crisis, particularly focusing on how they were affected, their policy responses, and the factors influencing their recovery. The analysis is based on data from the Spring 2010 World Economic Outlook, public sources, and internal assessments of vulnerabilities. The paper also includes country case studies and highlights the role of the IMF in supporting EMs during the crisis.

Main Views

1. Impact of the Crisis on EMs

The global crisis had a pronounced but varied impact on EMs.
EMs with higher pre-crisis vulnerabilities and stronger trade and financial linkages were more affected.
The median real output decline for EMs was similar to that of advanced economies (AEs), but there was significant variation across EMs.
Countries with low pre-crisis vulnerabilities (as per the Spring 2007 Vulnerability Exercise) experienced less severe output contractions and smaller increases in sovereign spreads.
The initial impact was less severe for EMs with better pre-crisis external vulnerability indicators.

2. Policy Response and Recovery

EMs that had more policy space and less financing constraints were able to implement more aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Fiscal policy in particular showed a stronger response than historical behavior.
Recovery was faster in EMs with better pre-crisis fundamentals and those that provided larger fiscal stimulus.
EMs with strong trading partners experienced quicker recovery.

3. Exit Challenges and Policy Implications

EMs with high pre-crisis vulnerabilities needed to continue adjustment to improve their resilience.
Countries with low vulnerabilities were ahead in recovery and may face constraints due to capital inflows from accommodative policies in AEs.
These countries may need to adjust their policy mix or consider capital controls and prudential measures to manage inflows.

4. Role of Reserves

Pre-crisis reserve holdings helped buffer EMs from the rise in global risk aversion.
However, the benefits of reserves diminished at very high levels of holdings.
Reserves were more effective in reducing external vulnerability when the ratio of reserves to external financing needs was moderate.

Key Information

Factors Influencing Impact

Pre-crisis external vulnerability indicators: Countries with lower vulnerabilities experienced less severe output contractions and smaller spread increases.
International reserves: Higher reserves reduced output collapse but showed diminishing returns at very high levels.
Trade linkages: EMs with more exposure to AEs' domestic demand saw greater real output reductions.
Credit booms: Pre-crisis credit booms, often foreign-funded, led to sharper output falls.

Policy Response

Fiscal and monetary stimulus: Countries with more policy space were able to implement stronger stimulus measures.
Monetary policy: The use of monetary stimulus varied across EMs, with some showing more accommodative policies.
Fiscal policy: Fiscal policy was more aggressive than expected, especially in countries with better fundamentals.

Recovery Dynamics

Fiscal stimulus: Larger fiscal stimulus correlated with faster recovery.
Pre-crisis fundamentals: Countries with stronger fundamentals recovered more quickly.
Trading partners: Faster-growing trading partners contributed to quicker recovery.

Country Variability

There was significant variation in outcomes across EMs.
Some EMs continued to grow during the crisis, while others experienced sharp declines.
The impact on financial markets and the banking sector also varied, with some EMs seeing larger increases in sovereign spreads and credit collapses.

IMF Role

The IMF provided financial support to several EMs, including through new mechanisms like the Flexible Credit Line.
The analysis helps contextualize the IMF's future financing role and supports work on exit strategies from crisis intervention.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes that EMs which had improved policy fundamentals and reduced vulnerabilities before the crisis were better able to withstand its impact and recover more quickly. It underscores the importance of pre-crisis policy reforms, the diminishing returns of high reserve holdings, and the need for careful management of capital inflows and policy mix as EMs exit the crisis. The findings also highlight the role of the IMF in supporting EMs and the value of vulnerability indicators in assessing future risks.

Tables and Figures

Table 1: Potential Determinants of Impact on Real Output
Table 2: Regressions for Percent Change in Real Output
Table 3: Determinants of Peak-to-Trough Real Credit Growth
Figure 1: Median Stock Market Indices
Figure 2: Impact of Crisis on Output
Figure 3: Financial and Corporate Vulnerabilities
Figure 4: Credit Developments
Figure 5: Exchange Rate Depreciations and Use of Reserves
Figure 6: Permanent Output Losses
Figure 7: External Imbalances
Figure 8: Inflation in EMs
Figure 9: Coping with Inflows: Use of Price-Based Capital Controls and Prudential Measures

Boxes

Box 1: Assessments of Underlying Vulnerabilities in Emerging Market Countries
Box 2: Alternative Ways to Measure Output Loss
Box 3: The Role of Trade Finance During the Crisis
Box 4: Trade Policy During the Crisis
Box 5: Was the Fiscal Policy Response in 2009 Different?