2022-05-22-瑞士信贷集团-坚持我们对银行的偏好_降低非银行机构的利润预期_26页_1mb

报告摘要

Taiwan Financial Sector Analysis Summary

Overall Market Performance:

Taiwan financial sector index dropped ~15%, still outperforming Taiex by 7% YTD.
Banks and bank-centric FHCs (e.g., CTBC, Cathay FHC) are at attractive valuations with clear core earnings growth prospects in H2 22/2023.
Non-bank firms (insurers, brokers) face overhangs from lower capital gains and FX-related adjustments.

Bank & FHC Focus:

Maintain preference for banks/bank-centric FHCs (CTBC, SCSB, Sinopac) due to simpler outlook with improving NIMs and loan growth.
Attractive P/B ratios and 7-13% ROE (e.g., CTBC 1.2x P/B, 13% ROE; Cathay FHC 0.7-0.8x P/B).

Insurance Segment:

Insurance sector expected to be "bumpy" in 2022 due to accounting MTM losses and lower headline profits; outperforming indexes may persist due to interest rate tailwinds.
Insurers like Cathay FHC (7x-8x P/E) remain preferred at valuation discounting risk; YY policies add potential losses.
Large insurers (Cathay, Fubon FHC) revised down due to lower growth and FX impact.

Broader Non-Bank Financials:

Securities brokers (CDF, Yuanta) face brokerage slowdown; estimates cut by 10-24% for life/subsidiaries.
Life insurers and brokers (Yuanta, CDF, Shin Kong FHC, Fubon FHC) under or neutral ratings due to valuation fairness or capital pressures.

Top Picks (Outperform):

CTBC Holding: Stronger growth outlook; OUTPERFORM rating, NT$35 target.
Cathay Financial Holding: Immunized against interest rate risk; NT$67 target.
SCSB (Shanghai Commercial Bank): Attractive valuation with potential upside.

Neutral/Downgrade Alerts:

Fubon FHC: Ongoing risk from pandemic policies and lower growth.
Yuanta FHC, CDF, Shin Kong FHC: Average valuations, headwinds from brokerage/insurance trends.

Valuation and Risks:

Dis applied sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) for targets, accounting for segmented performance.
Key risks: macro uncertainty, lower actual investment gains, pandemics (FX/policy losses), COVID-related claims.

Disclosure:

Noted potential conflicts of interest; firm has provided non-investment banking services to covered firms and trades certain securities. Analysts not registered with FINRA outside the U.S., lacks Conflict-of-interest pre-registration barriers for some markets.

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