2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kuwait_Selected_Issues_and_Statistical_Appendix_86页_1mb

Kuwait: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix Summary

Core Content

This document is a Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix Paper on Kuwait, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team for a periodic consultation with the Kuwaiti government. It was completed on May 30, 2012 and outlines key economic and financial issues, including developments in the investment companies (ICs) sector, global and regional financial linkages, fuel subsidies and energy consumption, fiscal rules, business environment, and population and employment trends. The document also includes a statistical appendix with detailed data tables and figures.

Main Issues and Findings

I. Recent Developments in Investment Companies

• Deleveraging: Kuwait's ICs continued the deleveraging process that started in 2009. The sector (including assets under management) accounts for 64% of 2011 nominal GDP or 74% of banking system assets.
• Asset Reduction: Since their peak in 2008, ICs' own assets decreased by 30%, and assets under management by 21%. This reflects losses from domestic and regional asset markets and redemptions by investors.
• Financial Vulnerability: Despite being well capitalized at 39% of total assets, many ICs are in dire financial situations. 15 out of 95 ICs are in a critical state, with combined assets of $14 billion and total liabilities of $11 billion, including $0.22 billion owed to banks.
• Stock Market Performance: ICs' stock market index is still below the 2007 peak, with a decline in market capitalization share from 16% to 8% in 2012.
• Liquidity and Market Risks: ICs remain vulnerable to financial and real estate market swings. While foreign liabilities are 15% of total liabilities, own funds have increased due to reduced reliance on foreign and local financing.
• Supervision and Regulation: The Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) and Central Management Authority (CMA) are involved in dual supervision of ICs, but bankruptcy laws are still inadequate for handling financial institutions.

II. Kuwait: Global and Regional Interconnectedness

• Foreign Asset Position: Kuwait has a gross foreign asset position of $51 billion, or 41% of 2010 GDP, excluding the government and the Kuwait Investment Authority.
  • FDI: $13.5 billion, or 26.5% of total investments abroad.
  • Portfolio Investment: $37.5 billion, or 73.5% of total investments abroad.
• Geographic Distribution:
  • GCC: Dominates portfolio investments (47% of total assets), and FDI (67% of total FDI).
  • Tax Havens and U.S.: Significant portions of portfolio investments are in tax haven countries (19.3%) and the U.S. (6.2%).
  • Europe: Minimal exposure, with GIIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) having very low exposure.
• Funding Risk:
  • External Debt: Total external debt in 2010 was $31 billion, with private sector debt accounting for $25 billion.
  • ICs and Banks: ICs are the largest holders of private sector external debt, with 23% and 25% of total liabilities for conventional and Islamic ICs, respectively. Banks have 6.9% of total liabilities in foreign assets.
• Financial Sector Risks: A significant drop in global equities would have a major impact on Kuwait's financial sector, particularly ICs, which have 28.2% of their assets in portfolio investments, compared to 5.7% for banks.

III. Fuel Subsidies and Energy Consumption

• Price Elasticity: The paper analyzes the responsiveness of energy consumption to energy prices, drawing from empirical literature.
• Subsidy Reform: It re-examines the long-term price elasticity of energy consumption and evaluates the implications for subsidy reform.
• Empirical Findings: The elasticity of energy demand is estimated, and the impact of subsidy reform is illustrated, showing that raising energy prices to their opportunity cost could reduce per capita energy consumption.

IV. Fiscal Rules: Application to Kuwait

• Fiscal Policy Overview: The paper discusses fiscal policy in Kuwait and the objectives and types of fiscal rules.
• Simulations: Various fiscal rules are simulated, including budget breakeven price, non-oil deficit, and debt brake mechanisms.
• Rule Properties: The properties of different fiscal rules are evaluated, with budget balance rules and structural balance rules being of particular interest.
• Implementation: The number of countries with fiscal rules is presented, highlighting Kuwait's potential adoption of such rules.

V. Improving the Business Environment in Kuwait

• Efficiency and Governance: The paper presents GCC efficiency indicators, labor market and education indicators, and governance indicators.
• Business Environment: It compares doing business indicators with the Global Competitiveness Index, indicating areas for improvement.

VI. Population and Employment Trends

• Labor Force Challenges: The document explores whether current economic activity growth rates can absorb new entrants to the labor force.
• Employment Elasticities: It examines factors impacting employment elasticities, using cross-country evidence.
• Labor Market Data: It includes employment statistics, economic activity distribution, and gender participation in the labor force.

Key Information

• Fiscal Rules: The paper discusses the application of fiscal rules in Kuwait, including budget balance rules, non-oil balance rules, and debt brake mechanisms.
• Investment Companies: ICs are a systemically important sector, with 9% of total bank lending directed to them. However, they face significant financial risks.
• Global Exposure: Kuwait's foreign asset valuation risk is high, especially in equity markets and the GCC.
• Subsidy Reform: The paper highlights the potential impact of subsidy reform on energy consumption and economic efficiency.
• Data Sources: The statistical appendix includes detailed tables and figures from 2006–2011, covering GDP, employment, debt, and investment data.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes the financial stability risks posed by the investment companies sector, the importance of fiscal rules for long-term economic management, and the need for improved transparency and information disclosure. It also highlights Kuwait's global and regional financial interconnectedness, which makes it vulnerable to external shocks, and the challenges in absorbing new labor force entrants. The statistical appendix provides comprehensive data to support the analysis.