2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kuwait_Selected_Issues_37页_818kb

Summary of Kuwait: Selected Issues

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of fiscal multipliers, exchange rate assessment, and the performance of the nonfinancial corporate sector in Kuwait, based on data up to June 28, 2011. It also discusses macroprudential policy in the context of Kuwait's economic structure and financial system.

Main Views and Key Information

I. Kuwait Fiscal Multipliers

• Background: Fiscal policy is a key macroeconomic tool in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Kuwait, due to its large state-controlled natural resource endowment, pegged exchange rate regimes, and open financial accounts.
• Government Expenditure and Nonoil Economic Activity: Government expenditure in Kuwait accounts for about 70% of nonoil GDP in 2009. However, not all expenditure types directly impact economic activity. Transfers to social security and subsidies, particularly energy-related, are excluded to better estimate the fiscal multipliers.
• Estimation Strategy and Results:
  • OLS regressions are used to estimate fiscal multipliers.
  • The overall government expenditure multiplier is estimated at 1.25, with the goods, services, and capital expenditure subcomponent showing a multiplier of 2.05.
  • The capital expenditure multiplier is the strongest, at 2.67 for contemporaneous and 3.33 when including a lag.
  • When control variables such as oil prices and monetary policy are included, the multiplier is reduced to 1.5.
• Assessment of the Results:
  • The high fiscal multipliers are attributed to the absence of automatic stabilizers, the high elasticity of labor supply due to expatriate labor, and the focus on nonoil GDP.
  • The results suggest that the multipliers are in the upper range of the Spilimbergo, Symansky, and Schindler (2009) rule of thumb and more than double those estimated by Espinoza and Senhadji (2011).
• Imports and "Leaks":
  • High imports from government expenditure may reduce the effectiveness of fiscal multipliers.
  • The correlation between imports and government expenditure is high, but it is mainly due to the indirect effect of government expenditure on nonoil GDP, which in turn affects imports.
  • The direct impact of government expenditure on imports is lower when nonoil GDP is included in the regression.

II. Exchange Rate Assessment

• Summary:
  • The real exchange rate has appreciated by 16% since 2004.
  • The nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) diverged due to higher inflation compared to trading partners.
• CGER-Type Approaches:
  • Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) Approach:
    • The ERER is estimated using terms of trade, investment income, and government expenditures.
    • The REER is found to be undervalued by 9.92%.
    • A high-frequency estimation using a panel of oil exporters suggests that the REER is undervalued by 0.28% in the medium term.
  • Macroeconomic Balance Approach:
    • The current account balance is compared with an estimated current account norm.
    • The approach suggests that the dinar is undervalued by 0 to 10% depending on the method used.

III. Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Performance

• Profitability:
  • The corporate sector's profitability is analyzed for the period 2008–2010.
• Corporate Sector Stress Testing:
  • The sector is evaluated for its ability to withstand shocks.
• Distance to Default:
  • The distance to default for banks and nonfinancial corporates is assessed, with results indicating varying levels of financial stress.

IV. Macroprudential Policy in Kuwait

• Introduction to Macroprudential Policy:
  • Macroprudential policy is introduced as a tool to mitigate systemic risks in the financial system.
• Issues for Kuwait:
  • The document outlines potential macroprudential instruments and challenges, such as the high reliance on foreign capital and the impact of oil price volatility on the financial sector.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Fiscal multipliers for government expenditure and its subcomponents.
• Table 2: Fiscal multipliers with control variables (oil prices, inflation, discount rate).
• Table 3: Impact of government expenditure and nonoil GDP on imports.
• Table 4: Long-term coefficients from the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the ERER.
• Figure 1: Correlation between real nonoil GDP and government expenditure (1980–2007).
• Figure 2: Correlation between imports, government expenditure, and nonoil GDP (1980–2007).
• Figure 3: Nominal and real effective exchange rate (2000–2010).

Conclusion

The analysis suggests that Kuwait's fiscal multipliers are relatively high, primarily driven by capital expenditure. The exchange rate is generally undervalued, with mixed results from different CGER-type methodologies. The corporate sector shows varying degrees of financial stress, and macroprudential tools are recommended to address these risks.