2025-05-20-Jefferies-华住集团（HTHT）_每间可售房收入（RevPAR）的改善趋势；休闲旅游是关键驱动因素_而商务旅行则不然_12页_302kb

Executive Summary

H World Group (HTHT / 1179 HK) is a leading Chinese hotel operator with a BUY equity rating and a 12-month price target of $43/HK$34. Q1 2025 revenue increased 2.2% YoY (beat estimate by 0.6%), but adjusted EBITDA was slightly below consensus due to macro uncertainties, particularly in business travel. Leisure travel demand remains strong, with RevPAR declining but expected to narrow in Q2. The company is implementing measures to boost profitability, including cost efficiencies, an asset-light model for new hotels, and rebranding efforts, particularly in mid-tier cities.

Financial Highlights

• Total revenue in Q1 was RMB5.4 billion, driven by 5.5% growth in Legacy Huazhu and a 11% decline in Legacy-DH segment.
• Adjusted EBITDA was marginally below analyst consensus, reflecting soft business travel due to tariffs and macro conditions, but expected improvement through cost efficiencies.

Market Outlook

• Leisure travel is a key driver, evidenced by positive RevPAR during the Labor Day holiday.
• Business travel is subdued due to macroeconomic uncertainties from tariff issues, impacting overall RevPAR recovery.
• Management anticipates narrowing RevPAR decline year-on-year and maintains Full-Year outlook.

Strategic Measures

• Focus on restructuring, rebranding, and penetrating Tier 1-2 cities to strengthen brand alignment.
• Improving DH profitability through overhead reduction, process streamlining, and product upgrades.
• Measures are expected to yield medium-to-long-term benefits.

Valuation and Recommendations

• BUY rating with revised PT of $43/HK$34 (up 18% from prior), based on DCF analysis.
• Key risks include slower-than-expected RevPAR and EBITDA margin recovery.

Key Risks

• Slower RevPAR recovery than anticipated.
• EBITDA margin deterioration amid persistent macro uncertainties.
• Changes in the broader economic environment affecting hotel demand.

Conclusion

H World Group sustains its growth strategy and profitability efforts despite external challenges, maintaining a favorable position in the post-pandemic recovery.