2010-03-16-奥纬咨询-Morgan_Stanley_Oliver_Wyman_Release_The_Outlook_for_Global_Wholesale_and_Investment_Banking_Report_2页_24kb

报告摘要

Industry Outlook:
- 2010 is described as a pivotal year for the investment banking sector due to significant changes in global securities markets.
- Key considerations include the impact of regulation and economic conditions on profitability and industry restructuring.
Financial Projections:
- Projected 2010 investment banking industry revenues may decrease by 10-15% due to the end of extraordinary gains and tighter margins.
Margin Pressure:
- Margins are facing contraction, particularly in credit markets. European credit bid/ask spreads are estimated to be 75% lower than their peak in the first quarter of 2009.
Regulatory Impact:
- Regulations could potentially lower industry Return on Equity (RoE) by 4% under the base case scenario, with a potential negative impact of up to 8%.
Market Structure Shifts:
- A significant shift towards centralized clearing platforms for Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives is predicted, with up to 85% of flow trades moving to such platforms.
- This change is linked to broader OTC derivatives reform.
Non-Bank Competition:
- Non-bank financial institutions are expected to capture a larger market share.
- This includes activities typically associated with banks, such as proprietary trading, direct lending, restructuring, and parts of complex derivatives.
- A key concern is whether this transfer significantly reduces the profit margins of traditional banks.