2025-06-10-花旗集团-美国家庭及个人护理和饮料_美国尼尔森2025年第二季度全景销售额（截至5月31日）与市场预期对比_16页_282kb

US Household & Personal Care and Beverages Nielsen Full View Analysis (2Q'25)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of Nielsen Full View sales data for the second quarter of 2025 (through May 31) for several US companies in the Household & Personal Care (HPC) and Beverages sectors, comparing them to reported company results and Consensus OSG estimates. The Full View dataset includes point-of-sale data and modeled data, offering a more comprehensive view of market performance than traditional xAOC+C data.

Main Points

Household & Personal Care (HPC) Analysis

• PG (Procter & Gamble)

  • Nielsen Full View for F4Q25 QTD: +3.1% (vs. +1.3% in xAOC+C)
  • 2Q25 QTD: +3.1% (vs. +1.3% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: +2.2% (vs. +0.1% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: +1.8%

• CL (Colgate-Palmolive)

  • Nielsen Full View for 2Q25 QTD: +1.0% (vs. -2.4% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: +0.3% (vs. -2.9% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: -2.0%

• KMB (Kimberly-Clark)

  • Nielsen Full View for 2Q25 QTD: +2.8% (vs. +0.1% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: +2.2% (vs. -0.2% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: +2.2%

• CLX (Coca-Cola)

  • Nielsen Full View for F4Q25 QTD: -2.5% (vs. -3.6% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: -0.3% (vs. -2.0% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: +4.6%

• CHD (Church & Dwight)

  • Nielsen Full View for 2Q25 QTD: +1.6% (vs. -0.2% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: +2.6% (vs. +1.3% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: -2.8%

• NWL (Nestlé Waters North America)

  • Nielsen Full View for 2Q25 QTD: -6.4% (vs. -8.1% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: -9.0% (vs. -10.1% in xAOC+C)
  • Modelled core sales: -5.5%

• KVUE (Kraft Heinz)

  • Nielsen Full View for 2Q25 QTD: +0.3% (vs. -1.7% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: +1.0% (vs. -1.4% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: -0.1%

• COTY (Coty)

  • Nielsen Full View for F4Q25 QTD: -7.6% (vs. -11.4% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: -10.9% (vs. -14.1% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: -6.8%

Beverages Analysis

• KO (Kraft Heinz)

  • Nielsen Full View for 2Q25 QTD: +5.1% (vs. +4.5% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: +5.7% (vs. +5.1% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: +3.5%

• PEP (PepsiCo)

  • Nielsen Full View for 2Q25 QTD: -2.6% (vs. -3.0% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: -1.1% (vs. -1.3% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: -0.6%

• KDP (Kraft Heinz)

  • Nielsen Full View for 2Q25 QTD: +4.2% (vs. +3.4% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: +5.9% (vs. +5.3% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: +2.7%

• MNST (Monster Beverage)

  • Nielsen Full View for 2Q25 QTD: +8.3% (vs. +7.2% in xAOC+C)
  • 1Q25 QTD: +6.3% (vs. +5.2% in xAOC+C)
  • Visible Alpha consensus: +7.7%

Key Information

• Nielsen Full View is an integrated dataset that combines point-of-sale data with modeled data, enhancing market coverage by including 1P Amazon and AOC+C.
• Consensus OSG (Organic Sales Growth) estimates are provided for each company, indicating the expected organic sales growth based on analyst views.
• The Visible Alpha consensus is used to compare actual performance against the expected organic growth.
• Delta values show the difference between Full View and xAOC+C data, highlighting the impact of including additional channels.
• The Beverage sector excludes alcohol companies due to inconsistent data impacts from additional channels.
• The document includes charts and tables for visual representation of performance trends across various quarters and periods.

Analyst Information

• Authors: Filippo Falorni, CFA; Chasen Bender, CFA; Jonmichael Shekian
• Contact: filippo.falorni@citi.com; chasen.bender@citi.com; jonmichael.shekian@citi.com
• Disclaimer: The report includes important disclosures regarding analyst compensation, conflicts of interest, and the nature of recommendations. Analysts may not have viewed the material operations of covered companies within the past 12 months.

Investment Ratings and Definitions

• Investment Ratings: Buy, Neutral, Sell
• Buy: ETR of 15% or more (or 25% for high-risk stocks)
• Sell: Negative ETR
• Neutral: No clear ETR or insufficient data to determine a view
• Catalyst Watch/Short Term Views (STV): Indicates near-term price expectations based on specific catalysts, separate from fundamental ratings.

Summary Table

Notes

• Data Exclusions: Alcohol companies are excluded from the Beverage analysis due to inconsistent data impacts.
• Conflicts of Interest: Analysts may have ties to the companies they cover, and recommendations are not necessarily independent.
• Disclosures: Full disclosures are available on Citi's website, including historical ratings and investment firm services data.