2025-06-16-Bernstein-达索系统（DSY）_达索系统_过去5天与投资者讨论的反馈_15页_1mb

报告摘要

Dassault Systèmes: Investor Analysis and Investment Outlook

Executive Summary

This report analyzes Dassault Systèmes (DSY) based on discussions with investors following the company's CMD on June 6, 2025. The stock has experienced a slight decline (-2%) since the CMD, primarily due to financial communication challenges. Investor confidence remains low for the updated 5-year plan without new certainty. The report identifies key areas where more detailed information is needed for better investor assessment.

Key Findings from Investor Discussions

Plan Confidence: Investors expressed low confidence in the updated 5-year plan, as it provided no new certainty.
Performance Requirement: Consistent performance aligned with the company's initial year-out scenario is necessary for the stock price to rise.
Investor Frustration: Prolonged disappointment over the past 18-24 months has led to caution, even though new-generation products could drive future stock performance if customer enthusiasm grows.

Specific Areas of Concern

Subscription Annual Run Rate (SARR): Investors seek clearer focus on subscription revenue; SARR is seen as a positive but needs more definition. Including quarterly order intake could provide better insights.
Financial Assumptions: While the plan seems detailed, more explanation on how past performance compares to assumptions and specifics on growth drivers like the pull-through effect are required.
Automotive Sector: Investors view it as a risk but acknowledge its potential for growth, especially with EV/SDV transition. More quantitative data on near-term opportunities would be helpful.
Medidata Ambitions: Growth prospects for Medidata are unclear; more discussion on bookings and backlog could alleviate investor concerns.
Subscription Impact: The negative effect of transitioning to subscription on growth is not well-quantified; a financial reporting exercise every quarter, adjusting for comparison, is recommended.

Investment Implications

Dassault Systèmes is rated "Outperform" with a €48 price target for the first-shares. The stock may rally if consistent performance materializes, but current uncertainties require caution. Hard KPIs and clearer communication on the above issues could bolster confidence.