2025-05-22-Bernstein-卫材株式会社（4523）_卫材公司在艰难推出Leqembi的过程中不容过度乐观（2024年第四季度收益投资者关系讨论后）_18页_355kb

Eisai Co Ltd Summary

Core Content

Eisai Co Ltd is a Japanese pharmaceutical company that is currently navigating through several key developments and challenges, including the launch of Leqembi, the patent disputes surrounding Lenvima, and the ongoing research and development of new drug candidates. The company is also focused on organizational restructuring, cost-cutting, and the adoption of blood-based biomarkers (BBM) for Alzheimer's disease diagnostics.

Main Points

Financial Outlook

• Profit Improvement Goal: Eisai aims to improve profitability by JPY30Bn by 2027 through organizational restructuring and cost-cutting measures.
• Cost Structure: In FY2024, JPY3.3Bn was booked for restructuring costs, primarily due to severance packages. Additional costs are expected in FY2025.
• Financial Metrics:
  • Price Target: JPY5,900.00
  • Current Price: JPY3,974.00
  • Upside: 48%
  • Market Cap: JPY1,159.01B
  • EV/FCF: 50.2x (FY24A), 14.0x (FY25E), 8.6x (FY26E)
  • Dividend Yield: 4.0%
  • Performance:
    • YTD: -8.2%
    • 1M: -1.6%
    • 6M: -14.5%
    • 12M: -39.7%

Leqembi Launch and Sales Growth

• Sales Growth: 4Q24 sales growth was affected by inventory buildup in 3Q, but hospital-level sales are growing steadily.
• Infusion Capacity: The infusion capacity has been increased to 19,000 by the end of FY2024, with plans to reach 26,000 by the end of FY2025. This has reduced the number of patients waiting for treatment initiation.
• Competition: Leqembi's growth has been slower than Lilly's Kisunla in early 2025, but the market for anti-amyloid beta therapies is expanding.
• BBM Adoption: The adoption of BBM as a confirmatory test is expected to accelerate starting in 2026, driven by changes in medical guidelines and the convenience and lower cost of blood-based tests. Fujirebio's BBM has received FDA approval and is expected to be available at 50 major Alzheimer's treatment centers in the US by June.

Lenvima and Patent Disputes

• Price-Volume Dynamics: The change in Medicare Part D design led to a decrease in net price but an increase in volume, resulting in a slightly lower revenue guidance for FY2025.
• Patent Settlement: The company has settled with Sun Pharma but is still involved in ongoing litigation with Shilpa and two other companies. The legal outcome with Shilpa is expected to influence other patent challenges.

Pipeline and R&D

• E2086: A novel orexin agonist with a different structure from other compounds. It is planned as a once-daily oral treatment and may be developed for both narcolepsy type 1 and type 2, as well as idiopathic hypersomnia.
• E2814: A tau-targeting antibody in a combination study with Leqembi. The company uses an algorithm based on biomarker ratios for patient recruitment.
• BBM Research: Eisai is involved in the development of a "brain health panel" that includes multiple biomarkers for personalized treatment planning.

Organizational Restructuring

• Headcount Reduction: The company has been reducing headcount in various regions, including Japan, with a focus on more efficient methods such as AI and digital tools.
• Sales Force Adjustments: The sales team in Japan has decreased significantly, and the company plans to adjust roles rather than increase numbers as PCPs become more involved in Alzheimer's care.

Key Information

• Leqembi's Future: The company expects a significant growth in 2026 as BBM becomes more widely accepted as a confirmatory test.
• BBM Technology: Fujirebio's test measures p-tau217 and amyloid beta 42 levels using immunohistochemistry, while Sysmex uses a different biomarker ratio.
• SC-AI Development: The company is addressing potential concerns about the safety and adoption of the subcutaneous formulation with auto-injector, including monitoring safety and securing separate payor coverage.
• PCP Expansion: Eisai is working to engage primary care physicians (PCPs) in the treatment and diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease, which is expected to increase market penetration.

Investment Implications

• Rating: Outperform
• EPS Forecast:
  • F24A: JPY163.76
  • F25E: JPY154.49
  • F26E: JPY155.43
• Financial Forecasts:
  • Revenues: Expected to decline in FY2025 and FY2026, with a CAGR of -10.6%.
  • Gross Margin: Expected to remain stable at around 78%.
  • EBIT Margin: Projected to increase from 7% to 13% by FY2027.
  • Net Income Margin: Expected to rise from 6% to 10% by FY2027.

Conclusion

Eisai is strategically repositioning itself through cost optimization and investment in key therapeutic areas like Alzheimer's disease and oncology. The company remains optimistic about the future growth of Leqembi, especially as BBM diagnostics gain traction. However, the ongoing patent disputes with generic companies could pose a challenge to Lenvima's market position. The company's focus on innovation and efficiency is expected to drive long-term profitability and market expansion.