2018-世界经济脉搏（英文版）-5mb

报告摘要

Summary of Global Advisor Wave 109 (Economic Pulse of the World)

Core Content

The Global Advisor Wave 109 (G@109) is an Ipsos survey conducted in 28 countries between April 20th and May 3rd, 2018. It measures citizens' perceptions of the national and local economic situations, as well as their six-month outlook on the local economy.

The survey includes adults aged 18–64 in the US, Israel, and Canada, and 16–64 in other countries. The sample sizes vary between 1000+ and 500+ individuals per country. The precision of the results is calculated using credibility intervals, with 1000 respondents accurate to ±3.1 percentage points and 500 respondents accurate to ±4.5 percentage points.

Main Findings

1. National Economic Assessment

Global Average: 47% of citizens rate their national economy as "good", unchanged from the previous wave.
Top Countries: China (84%), Germany (83%), Saudi Arabia (81%), India (74%), Israel (66%), Sweden (65%), the US (63%), Australia (62%), Belgium (58%), and Poland (57%).
Bottom Countries: Brazil (15%), Italy (18%), Argentina (21%), Spain (22%), South Africa (22%), Mexico (26%), France (28%), Hungary (31%), and Turkey (32%).
Improvements: Belgium (+8 pts.), Poland (+7 pts.), Great Britain (+6 pts.), South Korea (+5 pts.), Malaysia (+5 pts.), Israel (+4 pts.), Hungary (+3 pts.), Germany (+3 pts.), Russia (+2 pts.), and Mexico (+2 pts).
Declines: Argentina (-9 pts.), Canada (-7 pts.), South Africa (-7 pts.), China (-5 pts.), Turkey (-5 pts.), Chile (-4 pts.), Sweden (-4 pts.), the US (-3 pts.), India (-2 pts.), and Italy (-2 pts).

2. Local Economic Assessment

Global Average: 36% of citizens rate their local economy as "good", up one point from the previous wave.
Top Countries: China (72%), Israel (66%), Saudi Arabia (62%), Germany (58%), the US (58%), Sweden (57%), India (55%), Chile (46%), Canada (42%), Australia (41%), and Poland (38%).
Bottom Countries: Serbia (14%), Italy (15%), Japan (18%), Spain (18%), Mexico (20%), South Africa (20%), Argentina (20%), Brazil (21%), Hungary (21%), and Russia (23%).
Improvements: Russia (+8 pts.), Poland (+8 pts.), Malaysia (+7 pts.), South Korea (+4 pts.), Great Britain (+3 pts.), Brazil (+3 pts.), Belgium (+3 pts.), the US (+2 pts.), Sweden (+2 pts.), and Peru (+2 pts).
Declines: Chile (-7 pts.), Italy (-4 pts.), Argentina (-3 pts.), Canada (-3 pts.), China (-3 pts.), India (-3 pts.), and South Africa (-3 pts).

3. Six-Month Outlook for the Local Economy

Global Average: 29% of citizens expect their local economy to be stronger in six months, unchanged from the previous wave.
Top Countries: Saudi Arabia (61%), China (59%), India (57%), Chile (55%), Brazil (54%), Peru (52%), Argentina (37%), the US (37%), Mexico (35%), South Korea (33%), and Turkey (29%).
Bottom Countries: Italy (10%), France (11%), Japan (12%), Belgium (12%), Hungary (15%), Sweden (16%), Israel (17%), Spain (17%), Canada (18%), and Germany (18%).
Improvements: South Korea (+9 pts.), Great Britain (+7 pts.), Poland (+5 pts.), Turkey (+4 pts.), Saudi Arabia (+4 pts.), the US (+3 pts.), Malaysia (+3 pts.), Australia (+3 pts.), Sweden (+2 pts.), Mexico (+2 pts.), and China (+2 pts).
Declines: Hungary (-16 pts.), Argentina (-5 pts.), Italy (-5 pts.), Russia (-5 pts.), South Africa (-5 pts.), Chile (-4 pts.), Spain (-4 pts.), Belgium (-3 pts.), and Israel (-2 pts).

Regional Overview

1. National Economic Assessment by Region

Region	Net 'Good'	Change
North America	59%	-5%
APAC	54%	0%
BRIC	52%	-1%
Middle East/Africa	50%	-2%
G-8 Countries	46%	0%
Europe	45%	+2%
LATAM	34%	-2%

2. Local Economic Assessment by Region

Region	Net 'Strong'	Change
North America	50%	0%
Middle East/Africa	44%	0%
BRIC	43%	+1%
APAC	39%	0%
G-8 Countries	34%	+1%
Europe	32%	+2%
LATAM	27%	-2%

3. Six-Month Outlook for Local Economy by Region

Region	Net 'Stronger'	Change
BRIC	47%	-1%
LATAM	46%	-2%
APAC	33%	+1%
Middle East/Africa	33%	0%
North America	28%	+2%
G-8 Countries	18%	0%
Europe	16%	-2%

Key Insights

China remains the top country in both national and local economic assessments, showing consistent optimism.
Brazil has the lowest national and local economic ratings, indicating widespread dissatisfaction.
Hungary experiences the largest decline in the six-month outlook for the local economy.
South Korea shows the most improvement in the outlook for the local economy.
The global average for the national economic assessment remains stable, while the local economic assessment sees a slight increase.
Russia and Poland have notable improvements in both local economic assessment and outlook.

Conclusion

The G@109 survey provides a comprehensive view of economic sentiment across 28 countries. While some countries show positive trends, others face significant challenges. The results highlight the importance of economic stability and growth in shaping public perception and expectations.

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