IMF-几内亚比绍_若干问题（英）-2025.7_55页_1mb

Few Key Points from the Content:

1/5 Domestic Revenue Mobilization (DRM) in Guinea-Bissau:

• Tax revenue is low at 8% of GDP, one of the lowest in WAEMU.
• Challenges include informality, poor tax administration, enforcement gaps, and policy inefficiencies.
• VAT at 19% and CIT at 25% are aligned but do not drive enough revenue due to weak enforcement.
• Policy gaps: outdated exemptions (e.g., cement factory, banking), low compliance.
• Recommendations: Modernize tax law, digitalize collection (Kontaktu), enforce VAT, close loopholes.

2/5 Tax Analysis:

• Use of Stochastic Frontier Model shows a 2.7% GDP tax gap mainly due to poor compliance and enforcement.
• Current reforms (2024-2025) may not succeed without sustained administrative effort.
• Key Recommendations: Audit large firms, revoke tax exemptions, ensure border customs efficiency.

3/5 Economic Diversification:

• Exposes one-sided dependence on cashew, which has pushed rice farming/food security into crisis due to "natural resource curse".
• Fishery sector: Much fish is caught but exported via intermediaries; an industrial port is needed.
• Agriculture: Satellite data shows poor rice cultivation; INPA role is crucial but underfunded.
• Mining: Mineral reserves are significant but extraction is hampered by contractor issues.
• Key Actions: Support school feeding, revamp INPA, diversify exports via niche markets for cashew, modernize port to enhance trade.

4/5 Social Protection and Health Education:

• Spending on social programs is low (education at 2.1% GDP, health at 3.5% GDP) due to weak revenue collection.
• Outcomes lag peers (e.g., literacy 54%, primary enrollment 71%), low infrastructure investment in health and education.
• Issues with ghost workers, strikes, importation of inefficient subsidies.
• Recommendations: Digitalize social transfers, create national registry, curb energy subsidies to free up funds.

Annex Notes:

• Each section addresses the gaps via measurement tools, policy recommendations, and risk assessment.
• Considerations must be taken on ethics, potential innovation in collection, and building sustainable revenue sources.