2025-06-29-世界银行-几内亚比绍经济更新_2025年春季_几内亚比绍的税收表现（英）_56页_3mb

Guinea-Bissau's economy remained resilient in 2024, with GDP growth reaching 4.8 percent despite challenges in the cashew sector, driven by strong services and private consumption. Inflation moderated to 3.8 percent in 2024, though fiscal deficits increased public debt to 82.3 percent of GDP. The country's tax-to-GDP ratio was low at 8.2 percent, significantly below regional targets, due to reliance on indirect taxes and informal economy constraints.

The transition to the Value Added Tax (VAT) from the sales tax in January 2025 aims to broaden the tax base and improve revenue mobilization. Tax exemptions, particularly on diesel and cement, accounted for nearly 1 percent of GDP in 2023, primarily benefiting large infrastructure projects. Improving tax efficiency, rationalizing exemptions, and enhancing revenue collection are key recommendations for fiscal consolidation.

The fiscal deficit narrowed to 7.3 percent of GDP in 2024 from 8.2 percent in 2023, supported by expenditure cuts and grants. The country's external deficit rose to 8.5 percent of GDP, pressured by lower cashew exports due to climate shocks and logistical issues. Proposed revenue measures for 2025 include increasing cashew and fuel taxes, which could lift revenues by up to 1.46 percent of GDP.

The recommendations focus on broadening the tax base, reducing tax expenditures, improving tax governance, and strengthening customs administration to enhance revenue potential and support sustainable development.