2025-05-29-Jefferies-弗格森（FERG）_2025财年第三季度收益预览_第三季度及财年展望更为疲软_8页_261kb

Summary of USA Building Products (FERG) Equity Research

Overall Outlook

Jefferies rates FERG (Ferguson) as "Buy" with a price target of $210.00, representing a 15% upside from the current $182.47. The analysis anticipates a softer F3Q25 due to weakening foot traffic, web traffic, and broader economic headwinds, including lower resi sentiment and affordability constraints, which may necessitate a downward adjustment to the FY25 earnings outlook.

Key Market and Performance Drivers

• Residential Segment: Year-to-date sentiment in the residential construction market has softened, with affordability issues persisting due to interest rates around 7%, declining existing home sales, and high inventory levels (now at post-pandemic highs). This is expected to impact top-line growth in the third quarter.
• Traffic Data: Foot traffic to FERG locations fell 3% in Q3 2025, continuing a downward trend from prior quarters (e.g., Feb: -6%, Mar: -1%, Apr: -2%). Web traffic also weakened throughout the quarter (e.g., Apr: -17% YoY), correlating moderately with sales and volumes historically.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Trade tensions and tariffs introduce uncertainty for demand and margins; the recent Court of International Trade ruling may reduce demand destruction risks if tariffs are upheld. Commodity deflation may ease into F3Q25, but lingering inventories and subdued consumer spending are key concerns.

Financial Forecasts and Current Position

• Earnings Guidance: FERG's F3Q25 EBITDA is projected at $609 million, 8% below Street estimates, while FY25 EBITDA of $2.72 billion is at the low end of expectations. Resi top-line might be managed downward due to challenging market conditions, influenced by peers like MAS and FBIN.
• Pricing and Margins: Average selling prices are improving modestly, with projected finished goods price increases in the coming months. Margins face pressure from deflationary headwinds but may normalize in FY26 as investments from growth initiatives mature.
• Historical Context: FERG's rating has been "Buy" since Feb 2023, with a mix of positive and negative factors noted in previous reports.

Risks and Downside Factors

• Market Deceleration: Risks include slowing residential and remodeling (R&R) activity, which could accelerate the reduction in topline growth.
• Economic Pressures: Deflationary forces, slowing nonresidential activity, and limited government stimulus could strain margins and financial performance. Geopolitical risks (e.g., tariffs) and supply chain issues (e.g., China exposure via suppliers) pose additional challenges.
• Valuation: The price target is based on 16.6x FY25E EV/EBITDA. Peer comparisons include FBIN (BUY, 11.9x EV/EBITDA) and MAS (HOLD, 13.4x EV/EBITDA).

Company Focus

FERG, based in the US with a primary focus on plumbing and heating products, derives nearly all profitability from its US operations and serves various construction end markets. It acquired the Wolseley name in 2017 but retains its core strategic role in distribution.

Analyst Certification and Disclosures

Philip Ng, CFA, and other analysts certify that the views reflect their personal assessments. Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies, and investors should consider this report as one factor in decision-making, with past performance not indicative of future results.