2025-06-03-Jefferies-弗格森（FERG）_2025财年第三季度初步分析_大幅超预期并上调预期；商业与工业领域通缩趋平且加速发展_7页_109kb

Ferguson (FERG) Summary: F3Q25 Results and Outlook

Core Content

Ferguson (FERG) reported strong financial results for the third fiscal quarter of 2025, beating consensus estimates and raising its full-year guidance. The company is a specialist distributor of plumbing and heating products, primarily operating in the US, with a significant portion of its profits coming from this market. It also has operations in Canada.

Key Financial Performance

• Diluted EPS: $2.50, significantly above the consensus estimate of $2.01.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $770 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $647 million.
• Sales Growth: +4% YoY, driven by organic growth (+3%) and M&A (+1%).
• EBITDA Margins: Improved to 10.1% YoY, up 20 bps, due to GM improvement (+50 bps YoY).
• Total Sales: Increased by +4.3%, with volume growth (+3.5%) and M&A (+1%) as key contributors.
• FX Headwinds: Reduced impact in F3Q compared to previous quarters.

Market Conditions and Strategic Actions

• Deflationary Environment: The first quarter saw deflation flatten, with finished goods pricing beginning to flow through.
• Pricing Trends: Commodity deflation has tapered, and pricing is now more stable.
• Margin Improvement: The company is seeing continued margin progress, with expected improvements in Q4.
• Operational Streamlining: Actions taken in Q3 are expected to generate ~$100 million of annualized cost savings.
• Share Repurchases: Ferguson repurchased ~$251 million of shares in Q3.
• Acquisitions: Completed two acquisitions in Q3.

Segment Performance

• Residential Market: Subdued in Q3, with +2% sales growth.
• Nonresidential Market: Stronger, with +7% growth, driven by large capital projects.
• Commercial & Industrial (C&I): Noted as a key growth driver, with +MSD-HSD% growth.
• Civil/Infrastructure (LDD): Delivered +LDD% growth.

Guidance and Outlook

• FY25 Outlook Raised:
  • Sales growth: +LSD-MSD% (previously +LSD%).
  • EBIT margins: 8.5-9.0% (previously 8.3-8.8%).
  • Capex: $300-350 million (down from prior guidance).
• Implied EBITDA Guidance: ~$2.9 billion, above the consensus of $2.78 billion.
• Expected Share Performance: Shares are expected to open higher due to the strong results and revised guidance.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: $210.00 (+16% from current price of $180.29)
• Market Cap: $36.0 billion
• Float: 98.9%
• Average Daily Volume (ADV): 271.35 million shares

Valuation Methodology

The price target is based on a 16.6x EV/EBITDA multiple for FY25 estimates. The valuation considers multiple factors including market risk, growth rate, revenue streams, DCF, EBITDA, EPS, and other financial metrics.

Risks

• Deceleration in residential new construction and R&R.
• Continued deflationary pressures.
• Slowing nonresidential activity or limited government stimulus.
• Integration challenges from recent acquisitions.

Analysts and Contact Information

• Philip Ng, CFA – Equity Analyst
  • Email: png@jefferies.com
  • Phone: (212) 336-7369
• Maggie Grady Miller, CPA – Equity Associate
  • Email: mgrady1@jefferies.com
  • Phone: (212) 284-3472
• Fiona Shang – Equity Associate
  • Email: fshang@jefferies.com
  • Phone: (212) 336-7447
• Jesse Barone, CFA – Equity Associate
  • Email: jbarone1@jefferies.com
  • Phone: (212) 336-7260

Disclosure

• The report is prepared by Jefferies LLC, a US broker-dealer, and is subject to various regulatory disclosures.
• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the report.
• The report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered as one of many factors in making investment decisions.
• The information is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities and is not investment advice.