2019年汽车科技报告-GP.Bullhound-2019.2-40页_4mb

AUTOTECH: The Mother Of All Tech Battles

Core Content

This document explores the transformative changes in the automotive industry, driven by technological innovation, shifting consumer behavior, and evolving regulatory landscapes. It highlights how the traditional automotive industry is being reshaped by the convergence of four key trends: Electrification, Autonomous Driving, Shared Mobility, and Connected Experiences. These trends are expected to redefine the future of mobility, leading to a new era where the value of the automotive industry will shift from hardware to software and ecosystem-based models.

Main Trends and Their Impact

1. Electrification

• Overview: The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) is a major trend, with global sales of new EVs quadrupling between 2014 and 2017.
• Challenges:
  • Supporting infrastructure
  • Price parity with traditional vehicles
• Projection: By 2030, the global electrified car count could reach 100 million, assuming price parity by 2024 and sufficient investment in infrastructure.

2. Autonomous Driving

• Overview: Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are seen as a potential game-changer, reducing costs, improving safety, and enhancing the driving experience.
• Challenges:
  • Legislative frameworks
  • Technology readiness
• Market Activity: Over 50 companies are investing heavily in AV R&D, with Waymo and Cruise leading the charge. AV is a city-by-city battle, allowing regional players to compete.

3. Shared Mobility

• Overview: Shared mobility services, such as ride-hailing, are becoming a significant part of the mobility ecosystem. These services are expanding globally and into new transportation modes.
• Challenges:
  • Legislative frameworks
  • Integration and multi-modality
• Market Activity: Shared mobility has received the lion's share of investments since 2014, with major players like Uber and Didi dominating the space. OEMs are increasingly entering this sector through acquisitions and partnerships.

4. Connected Experiences

• Overview: Vehicles are transforming into data centers on wheels, generating vast amounts of data that can improve safety, traffic management, and user experience.
• Challenges:
  • Standardisation
  • Privacy and security
• Implication: The automotive industry will need to redesign in-vehicle and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication technologies to manage the data explosion.

Key Disruptions and Shifts

• Software Eats the Car: The automotive industry is moving away from traditional hardware-centric models toward software-driven mobility solutions. This shift is expected to change profit pools and customer relationships.
• Value Chain Transformation: The traditional value chain, controlled by automakers, is being disrupted by new entrants, including tech companies, which are vying for control of the customer relationship and mobility services.
• Profit Shift: As the industry evolves, profits are expected to shift from manufacturing to areas like software, AI, and connectivity, where traditional automakers lack expertise.

Tech Players and Their Influence

• Tech Giants' Dominance: Tech companies are outpacing traditional automakers in terms of scale, profit, and R&D investment. In 2017, they invested almost twice as much in R&D as their automotive counterparts.
• Strategic Moves:
  • Alphabet (Google): Early presence in cars through Google Maps and Waze, and building Waymo as a leading AV solution.
  • Intel: Combining processor tech with computer vision expertise to offer smart and connected solutions.
  • Samsung: Acquired Harman for infotainment and launched an autonomous driving fund.
  • Tencent: Focused on becoming a digital assistant across industries, including Autotech.
  • SoftBank: Invested in multiple Autotech segments, including AI, navigation, and ride-hailing.
  • Nvidia, Northvolt, FiveAI, Careem, BMW, Zerolight, Cooltra, Uniti: All provided expert insights on the future of mobility and the role of technology.

Automotive Industry's Response

• Investment and Innovation: Traditional automakers are not idle. They are investing heavily in Autotech, with strategies focused on electrification, autonomy, and connectivity.
• Examples:
  • Daimler: Emphasizes the CASE framework (Connected, Autonomous, Shared, Electric), and invests in startups through its Startup Autobahn program.
  • Ford: Aiming to launch 40 new electrified vehicles by 2022 and achieve level 5 autonomy in ride-sharing by 2021.
  • GM: Planning to commercialize Cruise at scale in 2019 and introduce 20 electric vehicles by 2023.
  • Toyota: Targeting to launch 10 new battery electric vehicles by the early 2020s and achieve L4 autonomy by 2020.
  • Hyundai: Focused on introducing a large number of electric vehicles by 2025 and achieving level 4 autonomy by 2021.

Market Activity and Geographical Trends

• M&A Activity: The Autotech industry has seen a significant increase in M&A transactions, with 166 in 2018 alone. Notable deals include DiDi Chuxing acquiring 99 Taxis and Mobike being acquired by Meituan.
• Geographical Focus:
  • Europe: Dominated M&A activity, with 39% of all global transactions. However, its share of total transaction value has declined since 2014.
  • Asia-Pacific: Focused on electrification, with major deals involving Intel and Mobileye, and Samsung and Harman.
  • North America: Less active in terms of transaction volume, but has seen significant deals in connectivity and shared mobility.

Future Battlefronts

• Convergence of Trends: Over the next 10-15 years, the four trends will converge, leading to a fundamental transformation of the automotive industry.
• Key Questions:
  • How will value be distributed?
  • Who will own the customer relationship?
• Implications: The automotive industry will need to adapt to a new value chain where software and ecosystem players have a stronger influence than traditional manufacturers.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by technological advancements and changing consumer behavior. As the value chain shifts from hardware to software, new players are emerging, and traditional automakers must adapt or risk being left behind. The future of mobility is not just about cars, but about creating seamless, connected, and sustainable transportation solutions.