CEPR-全球化的现状（英）-2025_112页_4mb

The State of Globalisation Report Summary

Introduction
The report explores the evolution of globalisation through the lens of technology, policy, and geopolitics, highlighting a transformation rather than a retreat. The simultaneous acceleration of these forces creates tensions between rapidly changing economic flows and slow-adapting institutions, raising the risk of fragmentation. However, evidence shows globalisation is reconfiguring rather than declining.

Part I: Trade and FDI Patterns

Geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping trade and investment flows along alignment with political blocs, as seen in Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-China tensions. Key findings:

• Gravity models reveal a 11-13% decline in trade and FDI flows between geopolitical blocs since 2022.
• Services trade shows less fragmentation than goods, but modern services (e.g., IP, telecommunications) are highly sensitive to geopolitical realignments.
• The U.S.-China trade imbalance is overstated without accounting for de minimis exceptions and transshipment, which reduce actual declines to ~6 percentage points.
• 70% of new trade interventions (2022–present) are purely protectionist, potentially worsening global recessions since the 1990s.

Part II: Policies

Industrial and trade policies are under intense scrutiny, often strategic rather than efficient. Key insights:

• Industrial policies increase significantly (especially in G20 since 2017) but yield uneven results: export incentives slightly boost competitiveness, domestic subsidies fade over time.
• Labor market policies reduce adjustment costs from trade shocks, fostering broader support for globalisation.
• The U.S.-China Phase 1 Agreement disproportionately benefits the U.S., harming global welfare, underscoring inefficiencies in bilateral deals outside existing WTO norms.
• Labor adjustment programs and social protection remain underfunded globally (median spending 0.3% of GDP).

Part III: Trade and the Monetary System

Geopolitical rivalries are changing the role of international currencies. Key points:

1. The dollar remains dominant but faces risks from U.S. fiscal mismanagement (debt, inflation) and sanctions.
2. Alternatives like the renminbi and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are gaining relevance, particularly in fragmentation scenarios, but lack the liquidity
   required for prime-time international roles.
3. A geopolitical exemption to WTO rules to accommodate rivalries is discussed as a potential solution, though governance challenges remain.

Conclusion

Globalisation is transforming rather than vanishing, driven by dynamic interplay between technology, policy shifts, and geopolitical fragmentation. The dollar’s dominance faces unforeseen risks, while alternatives like renminbi internationalisation and CBDC networks show promise. Effective policies—ranging from industrial strategies and labor support mechanisms to international monetary system reforms—are critical for navigating this flux while minimising costs to developing nations and vulnerable workers.