报告：电动汽车能否战胜冠状病毒危机_41页_1mb

Can Electric Cars Beat the COVID Crunch?

Core Content

This report, published by Transport & Environment (T&E) in May 2020, examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electric vehicle (EV) market in Europe. It evaluates how EU CO2 regulations have influenced investments in EV production, corporate demand, and policy recommendations for a green recovery.

Main Points

1. EU CO2 Regulations and Investment Trends

• The EU 2020/21 CO2 target of 95 gCO₂/km was set over a decade ago and reaffirmed in 2014.
• Before 2019, EU carmakers delayed investment in electric technologies, with most investments flowing to China, which had a more aggressive EV policy.
• In 2019, EU carmakers and other private entities began investing significantly in EVs and battery production in Europe, with total investments reaching €60 billion, which is 19 times more than in 2017/2018 and 3.5 times more than in China.

2. EV Production Growth

• The forecast before the pandemic predicted a 4-fold increase in EV production in Europe between 2019 and 2021.
• Volkswagen was the leading producer in 2019, with ~150,000 units produced, and is expected to lead again in 2021 with ~745,000 units.
• Germany received the largest share of investments, totaling ~€40 billion, followed by the Czech Republic with ~€6.6 billion.

3. Impact of the Pandemic on EV Production and Sales

• The pandemic caused factory closures, supply chain disruptions, and economic uncertainty, which impacted the automotive industry.
• Despite these challenges, EV production is expected to recover due to the pre-planned ramp-up in EV manufacturing, with many new models scheduled for production after July 2020.
• EV sales continued to grow in the first quarter of 2020, with record numbers and rising market shares in countries like France, Germany, and the UK.

4. Corporate vs. Private EV Demand

• Corporate demand for EVs is higher than private demand, with 57% of new car sales in 2019 being through corporate channels.
• The corporate channel is expected to be a key driver of EV demand post-pandemic, especially as companies are more likely to adopt zero-emission technologies due to Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) considerations and fiscal incentives.
• France has shown that corporate EV sales are falling twice slower than private ones, reinforcing the importance of corporate demand.

5. Policy Recommendations

• Maintain the 2020/21 CO2 target of 95 gCO₂/km and not reopen it for discussion.
• Accelerate the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by reviewing the 2030 CO2 standards and aiming for zero-emission cars only by 2035.
• Scrappage schemes should target ZEVs and support businesses and individuals to exchange old cars for new zero-emission models or electric shared fleets.
• Continue and expand incentives for company fleets, such as zero-rate loans, bonus-malus reforms, and VAT deductibility.
• Support the installation of charging infrastructure, especially in multi-apartment buildings, offices, and commercial properties.

Key Information

• China had seven times more investments than the EU in 2017–2018, but Europe closed the gap by 2019, with €60 billion in total investments.
• EU CO2 regulations are driving investment and EV production, showing that policy can influence market trends.
• The corporate channel is expected to drive post-pandemic EV demand, due to TCO considerations and fiscal support.
• Green recovery measures are crucial for shaping the future of the automotive industry and achieving climate goals.
• T&E calls for smart public investments and policy alignment with long-term climate objectives.

Conclusion

The report argues that the electric car momentum in Europe is not dead due to the pandemic, and that strategic recovery measures can ensure continued growth in EV adoption. It highlights the importance of policy and public investment in shaping a sustainable future for the European automotive industry.