2017年-世界发展银行全球_Bulgaria_Housing_Sector_Assessment_180页_4mb

Summary of the Housing Sector Assessment in Bulgaria

Core Content

This document presents a comprehensive Housing Sector Assessment for Bulgaria, conducted by the World Bank for the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works (MRDPW). It includes three versions of the report: an Executive Summary (5 pages), a Short Report (20 pages), and a Main Report (150 pages). The assessment covers various aspects of the housing sector, including population trends, housing stock and quality, legal and institutional frameworks, affordability, and targeted assistance for vulnerable groups.

Main Findings

• High Vacancy and Overcrowding: Despite having 900,000 more housing units than households, 40% of households live in overcrowded conditions. The national vacancy rate is 30%, with some cities like Sofia having a vacancy rate of 24%.
• Poor Quality of Old Housing Stock: Most housing in Bulgaria is from the socialist era, with over 75% of apartments in buildings older than 30 years. These buildings suffer from poor maintenance, leading to issues like leaking roofs, damaged facades, and deteriorated infrastructure.
• Seismic Risk: Old prefabricated "panel" buildings are at high risk due to their reliance on metal links that may have deteriorated over time. This risk needs urgent assessment and mitigation.
• Inadequate Support for Poor and Vulnerable Groups: Public assistance for lower income and vulnerable households is minimal, with less than 2% of the overall budget allocated. There is a lack of infrastructure upgrading and housing support for Roma communities.
• Affordability Concerns: 42% of single-person households and 31% of tenants face housing cost overburden. In cities like Sofia, housing costs are disproportionately high relative to income.
• Limited Rental Market: Only 5% of the housing stock is available in the rental market, which is not only a barrier to affordability but also impacts labor mobility and social inclusion.

Key Recommendations

1. Role of Government

• Housing Policy: Develop a national Housing Strategy that defines laws and regulations to enable a well-functioning and fair market. This should include incentives for private sector involvement and targeted support for the poorest households.
• Institutional Capacity: Improve municipal capacity to respond to housing challenges by analyzing how housing policy affects municipal operations, especially in social housing delivery.
• Social Housing: Maintain a database of social housing and use vacant housing as a source for affordable housing. This can reduce the need for new construction and help maintain existing housing stock.

2. Old Housing Stock

• Maintenance: Enforce the Condominium Law more effectively, using incentives such as tax concessions to encourage HOAs to maintain their buildings.
• Capital Repairs Fund: Require HOAs to contribute to capital repair funds, using the current 100% subsidy from the National Program for Energy Efficiency of Residential Buildings (NEEP) as a lever.
• Seismic Risk Assessment: Conduct a full investigation into the seismic safety of old housing stock, especially panel buildings, to determine the risk and implement mitigation measures.

3. Housing Assistance to the Poor

• Legalization of Informal Settlements: Facilitate the legalization of informal/illegal settlements where viable. This can encourage private investment, improve community health, and generate revenue for local authorities through property taxes.
• Improvement Areas: Rezone informal settlements as "Improvement Areas" with relaxed infrastructure standards to reduce the need for new social housing.
• Housing Allowances: Introduce housing allowances structured around a voucher framework, similar to EU countries. This would help poor households afford rent or pay for maintenance and improvements in multifamily buildings.

4. Housing Market Failures

• Vacant Housing: Investigate the underlying causes of high vacancy rates and consider using vacant housing as a source for market-based rentals or subsidized social housing.
• Rental Market Reform: Review and amend existing rental policies to ensure a fair balance between tenant and landlord rights and obligations. Increasing the supply of rental housing is crucial for affordability and mobility.

Key Information

• Population Trends: Bulgaria has experienced a significant population decline since 1989, with a 20% drop. This has led to population shifts, with some areas facing complete abandonment.
• Housing Finance: The housing market remains volatile, with a real house price index that dropped 30-50% during the 2008 financial crisis. Rental prices are high, and mortgage lending is constrained.
• Energy Efficiency: Programs like NEEP and "Regions in Growth" focus on energy efficiency, but neglect infrastructure upgrades, which are critical for low-income settlements.
• Legal and Institutional Framework: The legal framework for housing includes the Condominium Law, the State Property Act, and various EU-related regulations. However, enforcement remains weak, leading to continued deterioration of housing stock.
• Affordability Metrics: Housing cost overburden thresholds are defined by income quintiles. For example, the poorest 20% of households should not spend more than 10-15% of their income on housing and utilities.

Conclusion

The assessment highlights the urgent need for reform in Bulgaria's housing sector, emphasizing the importance of a market-oriented approach. It calls for a comprehensive strategy that includes policy reform, institutional capacity building, and targeted support for vulnerable groups. Local governments play a crucial role in implementing these reforms and must be supported to ensure effective housing policies that benefit both the economy and the population.