20250110-东方金诚-2024年CPI同比上涨0.2_PPI同比下降2.2_；资金面进一步收敛_债市明显回调_8页_647kb

Market Overview: 2024 Year-End Economic Performance and 2025 Market Dynamics

China Economic Data

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2024 year-ended CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, matching 2023's level reflected overall price stability.
• Producer Price Index (PPI): Year-ended PPI decreased by 2.2%, narrowing the decline by 0.8 percentage points. Year-ended Dec. 2024 CPI was 0.1%, PPI was -2.3%.

China Financial Market Updates

Monetary Policy Actions

• Central Bank Bills: 60B CNY 6-month central bank bills issued on 15th this month (Jan) to support exchange rate stability.
• Treasury Management: 1.2B CNY 2-month treasury bills tendered to 2025.

Market indicators

• Bond Market: Influenced by negative rumors and policy guidance, Net yields on 10-year Treasury and Policy Lending Bank bonds rose 25 and 200 basis points respectively.
• Interbank Rates: Main repo rates increased, with overnight rate touching 1.56% implying liquidity tightening.
• Equity Market: Major indices diverged on Dec 31st; Shanghai Composite fell 0.58%, while CSIN CSI 300 rose 0.32%.

International Monetary Dynamics

• Fed Speak on Interest Rate: Fed expects cautious policy due to persisting inflation and strong job market. Several regional heads support gradual rate cuts.

Global Bonds & Commodities Markets

• Yields Spread Widened: 2/10-year US T-Note spread widened by 2bp; Europe yields incl. Germany and France broadened significantly.
• Commodity Surge: Crude prices surged over 8% to over $7,300/bbl; gold prices increased nearly 0.75%.

Market Actions & Data Highlights

• Intl. Bonds: US Treasuries yielded mixed results; CUSIP Index announced higher yield targets; several high-yield credit events announced concerning default concerns.
• Intl. Expected Changes: EMFI currently seeks to avoid immediate issuing due to heightened risk perception.

Summary

December saw varying asset performance due to data uncertainties. Globally, the bond markets and commodities reflect inflation concerns. Emerging-market difficult conditions highlight the changing business environment.