20160808-德勤-Technology,_Media___Telecommunications_Predictions_2016_84页_2mb_2mb

Deloitte Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2016 Summary

Core Content

Deloitte's 2016 Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions provide an overview of key trends and challenges in the sector, focusing on technology, media, and telecommunications. The report highlights the persistent gender gap in IT jobs, the continued relevance of PCs among millennials, the rise of mobile commerce, and the potential of emerging technologies like graphene.

Main Points

Technology

• Women in IT jobs:

  • Deloitte predicts that by end-2016, fewer than 25% of IT jobs in developed countries will be held by women.
  • The gender gap is a social and economic issue, with potential global costs in the tens of billions of dollars.
  • The percentage of women in IT roles has not improved significantly since 2005, despite increased awareness and efforts.

• Education pipeline:

  • Fewer women are pursuing computer science and related fields at all levels of education.
  • In the US, only 18% of computer science graduates in 2013 were women, down from 37% in 1985.
  • Similar trends are observed in the UK and Canada, with women being underrepresented in STEM fields.

• Challenges beyond education:

  • Recruiting: Job descriptions often deter women due to gender-biased language and targeting algorithms.
  • Hiring: Unconscious biases lead to fewer women being hired for IT roles, even when equally qualified.
  • Retention: Women in IT are more likely to leave in their first year, often due to workplace culture, pay disparities, and lack of childcare support.
  • Paying and promoting: Pay gaps persist, with women earning 79 cents for every dollar earned by men in similar roles. Women are also less likely to be promoted.

• Government role:

  • Public sector employment of women in IT is more diverse than the private sector.
  • Government initiatives may help in improving gender diversity in the IT workforce.

• Trailing millennials and PC usage:

  • Trailing millennials (18-24 years old) are more pro-PC than post-PC.
  • They are more likely to own and use laptops compared to other age groups.
  • Laptops are seen as complements rather than substitutes for smartphones.

• Device adoption:

  • In 13 developed countries, over 85% of trailing millennials had access to a laptop in 2015.
  • Smartphone ownership is slightly higher than laptop ownership, but laptops remain the second-most desired device.
  • Purchase intent for laptops is higher than for other devices among millennials.

• Usage patterns:

  • Millennials spend significant time on both PCs and smartphones, with smartphones accounting for the majority of usage time.
  • Daily PC usage among millennials is around 54 minutes, with a slight decrease over time.
  • PCs are still used for content creation, longer-form video, and gaming.

• Emerging trends:

  • Touch commerce: Mobile checkout processes are expected to gain an express lane.
  • Graphene: Research into graphene is expected to yield significant benefits in the next decade.
  • Cognitive technologies: These are set to enhance enterprise software, making it more efficient and intelligent.

Media

• Virtual reality (VR):

  • VR is expected to become a significant market, with potential for a billion-dollar niche.
  • It is anticipated to gain traction in entertainment and other sectors.

• Mobile games:

  • Mobile games are leading in terms of user engagement but are less lucrative compared to console and PC games.
  • The report suggests that mobile will become the largest games platform in 2016.

• Ad-blockers:

  • Mobile ad-blockers are expected to save advertising revenue, but the impact is not yet fully realized.
  • The report notes the need for advertisers to adapt to these changes.

• Traditional media:

  • Broadcast television, radio, cinema, and live entertainment remain popular despite digital alternatives.
  • The report suggests that these media formats will continue to hold their own in terms of revenue and audience.

• Sports and eSports:

  • European football is expected to generate $30 billion in revenue.
  • eSports is growing, but its size and impact are still debated.
  • The report predicts that mobile will surpass consoles and PCs as the dominant platform for gaming.

Telecommunications

• Gigabit Internet:

  • The rise of Gigabit Internet is expected to drive new services and applications.
  • It will enable faster data transfer and more advanced digital experiences.

• Used smartphones:

  • The used smartphone market is expected to surpass $17 billion in trade-in value.
  • This market is becoming a significant consumer segment.

• Data exclusives:

  • The number of data-exclusive communicators is increasing, which will drive demand for higher bandwidth.

• VoLTE/VoWiFi:

  • These technologies are expected to improve voice communication over data networks, increasing capacity and reach.

• Photo sharing:

  • Photo sharing is expected to grow rapidly, with potential for trillions of shared photos.

Key Information

• Gender diversity in IT:

  • The percentage of women in IT jobs in developed countries is expected to remain below 25% by end-2016.
  • Efforts to increase diversity include better job descriptions, mentorship, and inclusive hiring practices.

• Millennials and PC usage:

  • Millennials are more likely to use laptops than smartphones for work and entertainment.
  • Their PC usage is expected to remain stable, with a shift towards mobile as they age.

• Market growth:

  • The used smartphone market is projected to exceed $17 billion.
  • Gigabit Internet, photo sharing, and data-exclusive communication are expected to grow significantly.

• Cognitive technologies:

  • These are set to revolutionize enterprise software, making it more efficient and user-friendly.

• Media trends:

  • VR and eSports are expected to grow, but traditional media will still hold value.
  • Mobile ad-blockers are a challenge for advertisers, but the market is adapting.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of addressing gender diversity in the IT sector, the continued relevance of PCs among younger demographics, and the growth of mobile commerce and emerging technologies. It also highlights the resilience of traditional media and the evolving landscape of digital communication and entertainment.