战略与国际研究中心-Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction-in-the-Gulf-and-Greater-Middle-East_104页_343kb

Summary of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Gulf and Greater Middle East

Core Content

This document, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman and published in November 1998, provides an in-depth analysis of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in the Gulf and Greater Middle East. It examines the conventional military balance, reasons for proliferation, war fighting options, and the challenges of counterproliferation. The report also includes country-specific assessments of WMD development and delivery systems.

Main Points

Conventional Military Balance (1999)

• The Gulf region has a wide range of conventional military capabilities, but many countries, particularly Iran and Iraq, rely heavily on outdated or obsolete equipment.
• Iran has a significant number of tanks, combat aircraft, and artillery systems, though many are Western-supplied and in decline.
• Iraq has a large number of tanks and artillery, but its military is under UN sanctions and lacks modern systems.
• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have more modern and well-equipped forces, but their capabilities are limited compared to Iran and Iraq.
• The report includes detailed tables showing military manpower, equipment, and delivery systems across various countries in the region.

Reasons for Proliferation

• Prestige and deterrence: Many states seek WMDs to enhance their strategic status and deter potential aggression.
• War fighting: WMDs are seen as a means to avoid conventional defeat and to conduct asymmetric warfare.
• Regional arms races: Countries like Algeria-Libya-Morocco, Egypt-Israel-Syria, and Iran-Iraq-Southern Gulf are engaged in arms races.
• Technological advancements: Dual-use technology allows states to develop WMDs without extensive external support.
• Lack of effective arms control: Existing regimes such as the NPT and CWC are insufficient to prevent proliferation.
• Internal political motivations: Authoritarian leaders may make sudden decisions based on internal politics rather than military realities.

War Fighting Options

• Covert and unconventional warfare: Many states rely on covert operations, terrorism, and proxy forces.
• Surprise attacks: The use of surprise and preemption is a key strategy, especially in the context of regional conflicts.
• Launch on warning/launch under attack: These options are used to deter enemies and ensure first-strike capability.
• Existential threats: WMDs are considered a last resort to prevent regime change or military conquest.
• Political intimidation: WMDs are used to exert political pressure on neighbors and the West.

Counterproliferation Challenges

• Ineffective arms control: The lack of enforcement mechanisms in the BWC and CWC makes them less effective.
• Concealment and denial: Proliferating states focus on hiding their capabilities rather than developing them openly.
• Technical sophistication: The ability to produce WMDs internally, especially chemical and biological weapons, is increasing.
• Uncertainty in effectiveness: There is significant doubt about the accuracy, reliability, and lethality of WMDs due to limited testing and the "Heisenberg factor."
• Impact on conventional warfare: The presence of WMDs may lead to unpredictable escalation and deterrence strategies.

Country-Specific Proliferation Efforts

• Iran: Has a large Scud missile arsenal, including both Scud B and Scud C variants. It has chemical and biological weapons, and is likely to have nuclear capabilities.
• Iraq: Has a long history of WMD development, including chemical and biological weapons. It has covert capabilities and may have a nuclear program.
• Israel: Possesses nuclear weapons and has developed chemical and biological capabilities.
• Syria: Has deployed chemical weapons and is likely to have biological and nuclear capabilities.
• Libya: Has a chemical weapons program and is developing biological and nuclear capabilities.
• Algeria and Egypt: Their efforts are less clear, but both are suspected of having chemical and biological capabilities.
• Yemen: Has stockpiled chemical weapons, though they may no longer be usable.

Key Information

Delivery Systems

• Missiles: Scud B and Scud C are the primary missile systems in the region, with ranges up to 500 kilometers.
• Aircraft: Some countries have long-range strike aircraft, such as the F-15C and F-16C, which can carry WMDs.
• Helicopters: Used for covert and unconventional warfare, including chemical and biological delivery.

WMD Types and Capabilities

• Chemical Weapons: Widely deployed, with mustard and nerve agents being the most common.
• Biological Weapons: Increasingly developed, with the potential for covert mass production.
• Nuclear Weapons: Some countries are actively pursuing nuclear capabilities, though progress varies.

Strategic Implications

• The proliferation of WMDs is a significant concern for regional stability and international security.
• The use of WMDs may lead to unpredictable escalation and the risk of total war.
• The effectiveness of WMDs is often limited by technical and operational constraints.
• The lack of effective counterproliferation and defense systems makes the region vulnerable to WMD attacks.

Conclusion

The report highlights the growing threat of WMD proliferation in the Gulf and Greater Middle East. It underscores the need for robust arms control mechanisms, improved intelligence and surveillance capabilities, and enhanced defense systems to mitigate the risks associated with these weapons. The document also emphasizes the importance of understanding the strategic and political motivations behind WMD development and use.