2018年-普华永道全球_Emerging_Trends_in_Real_Estate®_The_Global_Outlook_2018_36页_2mb

Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2018 report outlines the evolving dynamics of the global real estate market, emphasizing the need for investors to adapt to new economic conditions, technological advancements, and shifting consumer behavior. The report highlights that real estate remains an attractive investment despite a late-cycle market and rising interest rates.

Main Points

1. Late-Cycle Market and Risk Management

• Real estate is in a late-cycle phase, influenced by the gradual reversal of monetary policy.
• There is a disconnect between the amount of capital available and the ability to deploy it effectively in assets that can withstand a downturn.
• Risk management is becoming increasingly important as the market evolves.

2. Shift from Ownership to Access

• Real estate is moving from a traditional ownership model to one focused on access, services, and outcomes.
• This shift is driven by changing occupier needs and increased information transparency.
• Operational performance and management are now more crucial than ever in driving value.

3. Impact of Rising Interest Rates

• Rising interest rates are affecting real estate markets, particularly in the US, UK, and Europe.
• In the US, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is expected to boost real estate demand, especially for office and industrial spaces.
• The report suggests that while rate increases are coming, the market is still in a low-cost funding environment, allowing investors to absorb modest increases.

4. Capital Flows and Investment Trends

• Global real estate investment reached $873 billion in 2017, matching 2016 levels.
• Asia Pacific led with a 6% rise, while Europe saw an 8% increase.
• US investment fell by 8% in 2017, with major cities like New York experiencing a 32% decline.
• Second-tier cities are becoming more attractive due to their affordability and strong economic fundamentals.

5. Technological Disruption

• Disruptive technologies, such as driverless cars and co-working spaces, are reshaping real estate.
• These innovations are challenging traditional models and creating new opportunities.
• Operational flexibility and innovation are key to staying competitive.

6. Capital Inflows and Diversification

• Excess liquidity is a major driver of investment in real estate, particularly in Asia Pacific.
• Pension funds and institutional investors are increasing their allocations to real estate, with a focus on value-add and opportunistic investments.
• Cross-border capital flows are on the rise, with Asian investors showing strong interest in European markets, especially London.

7. Retail Sector Consolidation

• The retail sector is undergoing a major transformation, with consolidation and scaling becoming key strategies.
• Department store obsolescence and e-commerce growth are leading to overcapacity and changing consumer behavior.
• High-quality retail locations are still in demand, but operational expertise is becoming more important than ever.

8. Political and Economic Uncertainty

• Brexit and other political events have cast a shadow over the market, but economic growth continues to support real estate.
• Political instability is expected to increase, which may lead to volatility in real estate markets.

Key Trends and Opportunities

• Logistics real estate is a growing sector, with a 33% increase in investment due to changes in supply chain management and the rise of online retailing.
• Co-working spaces are becoming a significant driver of new office space demand in Asia.
• Data centres, healthcare assets, and affordable housing are emerging as attractive investment opportunities due to their steady returns and demand resilience.
• Operational platforms are becoming more important than physical assets, with investors looking to acquire operating companies rather than just properties.

Conclusion

The 2018 Emerging Trends in Real Estate® report underscores the transformative nature of the real estate industry, driven by technological change, economic uncertainty, and increased capital flows. Investors are being urged to adapt to new models, embrace innovation, and focus on operational excellence to remain competitive and achieve long-term returns.