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Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2018 Summary

Core Content

Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2018 is a comprehensive report by PwC and the Urban Land Institute (ULI) that provides insights into real estate investment, development, finance, and market trends in the United States and Canada. The report outlines key trends, forecasts, and expert opinions from over 1,600 survey respondents and more than 800 interviewees, representing a broad range of industry professionals.

Main Points

1. Long Glide Path to a Soft Landing

• Economic Recovery: The U.S. economy is experiencing a slow and steady recovery, with GDP growth averaging around 2.1% annually since 2010. This contrasts with the rapid growth seen in previous decades, such as the 1980s and 1990s.
• Soft Landing Expectations: Experts believe the current economic cycle is on a path to a "soft landing," characterized by a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp downturn. This is attributed to the moderation of the recovery and the avoidance of the extreme conditions that led to previous "hard landings."
• Key Indicators: Low unemployment, a shift toward tighter monetary policy, and high asset prices are seen as signs of a slowing economy, not a recession. These factors are interpreted as a hedge against risk and a signal to reduce leverage and focus on sustainability.
• Risks: While a "black swan" event is unlikely, the long-term risk to real estate lies in the potential for a slowdown in economic growth, particularly due to income inequality, wage stagnation, and regional economic disparities.

2. Working Smarter and Working Harder

• Productivity Trends: The U.S. economy has seen a decline in labor productivity, with output per hour growing at only 0.6% annually since 2011. This has led to a reevaluation of how real estate contributes to economic performance.
• Office Space Evolution: Office design is moving toward "space compression" and "planned serendipity," encouraging interaction and collaboration. There is also a growing emphasis on "curated properties" that incorporate smart technology to enhance space utilization and productivity.
• Wellness in Real Estate: The concept of wellness in the workplace is gaining traction, with features like improved air quality, fitness facilities, and food service becoming increasingly important. These changes aim to improve employee satisfaction and productivity.
• Technology Integration: Real estate operations are adopting smart building technologies and AI to optimize performance. The integration of IoT (Internet of Things) devices is seen as a way to increase efficiency and reduce costs.
• Work-Life Blurring: The rise of remote and mobile work has led to a blurring of work and home life. Despite this, many professionals still emphasize the importance of working harder, not just smarter, to achieve economic goals.

3. Procession of the Generations

• Millennials and Gen Z: The report shifts focus from millennials to generation Z (Gen Z), the next demographic cohort. Gen Z is expected to influence household formation, consumption, and workplace design preferences.
• Gen Z Characteristics: Gen Z has grown up in an era of technological advancement, social media, and economic uncertainty. They are shaped by events such as 9/11, the Great Recession, and political polarization.
• Preferences: Gen Z is both pragmatic and tech-savvy. They prioritize personal security and efficiency, while also being socially connected and mobile. These dual characteristics mean they do not see their preferences as a dilemma but as the natural state of their world.
• Impact on Real Estate: As the newest entrants to the labor force, Gen Z is expected to drive changes in real estate, including a shift toward more flexible and tech-integrated workspaces.

Key Information

• Survey Participants: The report includes insights from a diverse group of professionals, including investors, fund managers, developers, property companies, lenders, brokers, and consultants.
• Data Sources: Key data and trends are derived from surveys and interviews conducted by PwC and ULI, with a focus on U.S. respondents, though Canadian insights are also covered.
• Market Outlook: The report discusses the long-term trajectory of real estate markets, emphasizing the importance of understanding demographic shifts and technological changes.
• Property Type Focus: It provides a detailed outlook on various property types, including industrial, apartments, single-family homes, office, hotels, and retail, highlighting their respective trends and challenges.
• Capital Markets: The debt and equity sectors are under scrutiny, with a trend toward lower leverage and more disciplined investment strategies.

Conclusion

Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2018 underscores the importance of adapting to a new normal in real estate, characterized by slower growth, increased focus on technology and sustainability, and the influence of changing demographics. It highlights the need for real estate professionals to work smarter and harder, anticipate the impact of future generations, and navigate the industry toward a stable and sustainable future.