2014年-普华永道全球_Real_Estate_2020_Building_the_future__40页_983kb

报告摘要

Summary of Real Estate 2020: Building the Future

Core Content

This document outlines the evolving real estate landscape up to 2020, focusing on how global megatrends are reshaping the industry. It presents six key predictions, implications for real estate strategies, and success factors that will define the future of real estate investment and development. The emphasis is on sustainability, technology, urbanisation, and the growing role of emerging markets in the global real estate economy.

Main Trends and Predictions

1. Global Expansion of Investable Real Estate

The global stock of institutional-grade real estate is expected to grow significantly, reaching $45.3 trillion by 2020 from $29.0 trillion in 2012.
Emerging economies will drive the majority of this growth, with a projected expansion of over 55%.
The growth will be evident across housing, commercial real estate, and infrastructure.

2. Urbanisation and Population Shifts

By 2050, the urban population is expected to increase by 75% to 6.3 billion.
By 2025, there will be 37 megacities, with 12 in emerging markets.
Urbanisation will lead to increased demand for housing, especially in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.
Cities will become more densely populated, leading to smaller apartments and a shift in residential design.

3. Demographic Changes

The global population is expected to reach 9.3 billion by 2050, with the number of people over 60 surpassing those under 15.
Middle-class populations in emerging economies will grow rapidly, increasing demand for affordable housing and specific real estate types.
In advanced economies, the aging population will create demand for healthcare, retirement, and nursing home facilities.

4. Sustainability as a Key Driver

Sustainability will become a critical factor in building design and real estate value.
By 2020, all buildings in advanced economies will likely need sustainability ratings.
Developers are already incorporating green features, such as renewable energy and natural lighting, into new developments.
Sustainability will influence the value of real estate, with potential for a 'green premium' and a 'brown discount' for less eco-friendly buildings.

5. Technology Disruption

Technology is reshaping real estate economics, with online shopping and digital services reducing the need for physical retail and office space.
Warehousing and logistics will become more important due to the rise of e-commerce.
Technology will also enable more efficient construction techniques, such as prefabrication and 3D printing, which could lower costs and improve eco-efficiency.

6. Emerging Markets and Competition

Emerging markets will dominate the global economy by 2020, leading to increased competition for prime real estate.
Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are becoming major players in real estate investment, especially in emerging economies.
Emerging markets will host over 60% of global construction activity by 2025, up from 35% in 2005.
New cities in countries like China, India, and the Middle East will be built with eco-efficient technologies.

Key Implications for Real Estate Strategies

1. Think Globally

Real estate managers should consider global opportunities and local nuances.
Emerging economies offer high-growth potential but also higher risks.

2. Understand City Economics

Cities will vary in their economic potential, and understanding the underlying factors is crucial for investment success.

3. Factor Technology and Sustainability into Valuations

Real estate values will be increasingly influenced by sustainable design and technological integration.

4. Collaborate with Governments

Governments in emerging markets will play a central role in urban development and infrastructure.
Public-private partnerships will be essential for successful real estate projects.

5. Decide Where and How to Compete

Real estate managers need to adapt their strategies to different markets and subsectors.
They may need to focus on high-growth areas or specialise in niche subsectors like healthcare and retirement.

6. Assess a Broader Range of Risks

Risks such as climate change, political instability, and behavioral shifts will become more significant.
Real estate strategies must account for these new risks to remain competitive.

Success Factors

1. Global Network with Local Knowledge

A strong global presence combined with local expertise and good government relations is essential for success.

2. Specialist Expertise and Innovation

Real estate managers must innovate in design, construction, and investment strategies to meet evolving demands.

3. Cost Management and Scale

Efficient cost management and the ability to scale operations will be critical for profitability in a rapidly changing market.

4. Right People

Having the right talent, particularly in areas like sustainability and technology, will be a key differentiator.

Conclusion

By 2020, the real estate industry will be at the forefront of economic and social transformation. The combination of urbanisation, demographic shifts, sustainability, and technology will create both opportunities and challenges. Real estate managers must adapt their strategies, understand the new value drivers, and build the right capabilities to thrive in this evolving landscape. The future belongs to those who can navigate these changes effectively.