战略与国际研究中心-Australia-and-the-Realpolitik-of-Trade-in-the-Asia-Pacific_9页_879kb

Pacific Partners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document outlines Australia's strategic and economic interests in the Asia Pacific region, emphasizing the importance of trade liberalization and regional integration. It also touches on various political, economic, and social developments in Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands, highlighting the interplay between trade policy and geopolitical strategy.

Main Views

• Trade Integration and Regional Cooperation: Australia is advocating for a broader, more inclusive trade integration model that includes all East Asia Summit (EAS) members, such as the U.S., China, India, and all ASEAN countries. This is in contrast to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which excludes some countries like India and the newer EAS members.

• RCEP as a Strategic Alternative: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is presented as a viable alternative to the TPP, which is seen as too exclusive. The U.S. is encouraged to join RCEP to bridge the strategic gap between its regional security goals and trade policies.

• U.S. Engagement in the Region: The U.S. is advised to prioritize Asia and trade, recognizing the need for a more balanced approach. This includes not only engaging in trade negotiations but also reinforcing diplomatic ties with key partners like New Zealand.

• Political and Economic Developments in Australia: The document discusses recent political shifts, including the rise in approval ratings for the Gillard government, the decision to move asylum seekers to detention centers in Nauru, and the economic impact of cutting interest rates to stimulate growth.

• Challenges in the Pacific Islands: Fiji faces scrutiny over its labor practices and potential loss of preferential access to U.S. markets. Palau's Compact of Free Association is also under review due to delays in financial support. Tuvalu has taken steps to comply with U.S. sanctions by deregistering Iranian oil tankers.

Key Information

Australia

• Asylum Policy: Asylum seekers are being moved to Nauru, with some opting to return to Sri Lanka. The government claims this is a success of its "Pacific Solution."
• Economic Measures: The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to 3.25%, the lowest since the financial crisis, to boost the economy.
• Political Trends: Prime Minister Julia Gillard's government saw a rise in approval ratings after repealing unpopular policies.
• Manufacturing Outlook: The manufacturing sector is expected to remain weak due to the strong Australian dollar and the end of the mining boom.

New Zealand

• Afghanistan Withdrawal: New Zealand announced its Provincial Reconstruction Team will withdraw by April 2013, ending a decade of military involvement.
• U.S. Relations: U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta visited New Zealand to improve bilateral ties, including allowing New Zealand naval vessels to visit U.S. ports.
• Legal Issues: Prime Minister John Key apologized for errors in the extradition case of Kim Dotcom, who is facing charges related to his file-sharing site Megaupload.

Pacific Islands

• Fiji: Expelled an ILO delegation, facing potential loss of preferential access to U.S. markets due to labor rights concerns.
• Palau: Delays in Compact of Free Association legislation threaten U.S.-Palau diplomatic relations.
• Tuvalu: Deregistered Iranian oil tankers to comply with U.S. sanctions, despite claims of ignorance at the time of registration.
• Bougainville: The autonomous region of Papua New Guinea announced a review of its peace agreement with the national government due to lack of progress.

Events and Announcements

• Lectures and Events:

  • A lecture on the role of sports in post-disaster recovery will be held in November.
  • A talk on the "Unraveling of Pax America?" will explore the changing geopolitical landscape.
  • An art exhibition from the Balgo Hills will take place at the Australian Embassy.

• Trade Negotiations:

  • The next round of TPP negotiations will be held in New Zealand in December 2012.
  • The U.S. is urged to join the RCEP to better align with its strategic goals in the region.

Conclusion

The document underscores the importance of a balanced and inclusive approach to trade and economic integration in the Asia Pacific, advocating for the U.S. to engage more actively in both the TPP and RCEP. It also highlights the complex interplay between economic policy, geopolitical strategy, and domestic political dynamics across the region.