2025-05-20-Bernstein-沃达丰集团（VOD）_快速解读沃达丰——在困境中前行_13页_531kb

报告摘要

Vodafone's 2H24 results showed a significant decline in German EBITDA (-15.9% year-over-year), contributing to a ~7% overall EBITDA drop.
The performance was largely in line with company-compiled consensus but under market expectations due to factors like slow migration to 1&1 customers, corporate segment pressure, and mobile competition.
Price target remains at GBp 65, with Underperform recommendation, reflecting valuation challenges in core markets like Germany and exposure to emerging economies.
Guidance for FY25-26 suggests modest EBITDA growth, but reforms and forex adjustments add complexity.

EBITDA a/L fell ~1.3% year-over-year, driven by ~€396m EBITDA decline in Germany, partially offset by growth in Turkey, Africa, and the UK.
Forex adjustments overly boost "organic" growth figures by ~260 basis points, requiring careful interpretation due to inflation-related currency impacts.
EBITDAaL consensus for FY25 is ~€11.15bn, slightly below analyst expectations after safety concerns were flagged in previous quarters.

Upside risks include regulatory changes for fiber access costs or margin improvements, but management faces challenges in maintaining EBITDA margins in key markets.
Underperform rating stems from modest valuation multiples (e.g., EV/EBITDA ~4.5x) reflecting market headwinds and integration issues post-mergers like Hutch UK.
Potential negative catalysts include spectrum liabilities or ongoing operational weaknesses in Europe.

Analysts advise investors to consider valuation discounts for emerging market exposure while monitoring regulatory developments and cost efficiencies.
No major surprises in guidance, but consensus views remained cautiously bearish on sustained profitability growth.

展开完整摘要