20220429-招银国际-广汽集团-02238.HK-1Q22_earnings_beat_on_joint_ventures_4页_843kb

报告摘要

GAC Group (2238 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an update on GAC Group's financial performance for 1Q22 and outlines the company's outlook for the remainder of FY22 and beyond. It highlights strong earnings from joint ventures, resilient demand for Aion, and the potential impact of stimulus measures in Guangdong province. The report also includes financial summaries, key ratios, and valuation analysis, maintaining a BUY rating and a target price of HK$12.00.

Key Financial Highlights (YE 31 Dec)

Metric	FY20A	FY21A	FY22E	FY23E	FY24E
Revenue (RMB mn)	63,157	75,676	98,912	116,448	118,422
YoY growth (%)	5.8	19.8	30.7	17.7	1.7
Net income (RMB mn)	5,964	7,511	8,827	10,514	11,759
EPS (RMB)	0.58	0.73	0.85	1.00	1.12
YoY growth (%)	-9.9	25.9	17.5	19.1	11.8
P/E (x)	10.1	7.5	6.3	5.3	4.8
P/B (x)	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5
ROE (%)	7.2	8.6	9.3	10.1	10.5

1Q22 Earnings Review

Net Profit: RMB 3.0bn, 6% higher than prior estimates.
Key Drivers: Strong performance from joint ventures (GAC Toyota and GAC Honda) and equity income.
Gross Margin: 1.9 ppts lower than expected, due to rising battery costs.
SG&A Expenses: Lower than estimates, indicating cost control.

2Q22 and FY22 Outlook

Aion Orders Backlog: Almost 70,000 units, with 20,000 units ordered in April 2022.
Price Increase: Aion is expected to start delivering vehicles at higher prices in June 2022 after two price hikes in March and April 2022.
Earnings Forecast: Slightly higher average selling prices for 2Q22E, with similar gross margin.
FY22E Net Profit Estimate: RMB 8.8bn, on track with 1Q22 results.

Valuation and SOTP Analysis

Valuation Method: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP).
Aion Spin-off Valuation: HK$6.0 per share for 75% of Aion based on 2.5x FY22E P/S.
JVs and Associates Valuation: HK$6.0 per share based on 4.0x FY22E P/E.
Trumpchi Valuation: 0, due to lower profitability.
Target Price: HK$12.00, with an upside of +82.1% from current price (HK$6.59).

Key Risks

Lower sales volume and margins, especially for Aion.
Slower spin-off progress than expected.
Sector de-rating.

Shareholding Structure

Guangzhou Automobile Industry: 53.1%
Others: 46.9%

Stock Performance

Period	Absolute Return (%)	Relative Return (%)
1-month	-1.6	7.5
3-months	-17.5	-2.2
6-months	-15.2	6.2

Key Ratios

Metric	FY20A	FY21A	FY22E	FY23E	FY24E
Revenue Growth (%)	5.8	19.8	30.7	17.7	1.7
Net Profit Growth (%)	-9.9	25.9	17.5	19.1	11.8
Gross Margin (%)	3.6	5.2	6.6	8.4	9.0
Operating Margin (%)	-5.6	-4.8	-3.6	-2.3	-2.2
Net Profit Margin (%)	9.4	9.9	8.9	9.0	9.9
ROE (%)	7.2	8.6	9.3	10.1	10.5
Current Ratio (x)	1.3	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.5
Payable Turnover Days	213	196	200	195	190
Inventory Turnover Days	40	41	40	40	40

Analyst Ratings

CMBIGM Rating: BUY
Target Price: HK$12.00
Potential Return: Over 15% over next 12 months

Market Performance

Mkt Cap (HK$ mn): 65,295
Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn): 156
52w High/Low (HK$): 9.25 / 5.50
Total Issued Shares (mn): 10,464

Analyst Contact

SHI Ji, CFA: (852) 3761 8728 | shiji@cmbi.com.hk
DOU Wenjing, CFA: (852) 69394751 | douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk

Disclaimer

The report is not investment advice.
Information is based on public data and may not be suitable for all investors.
CMBIGM is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on the report.
The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced without consent.

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