纽约联储-市场集中度和总生产率_需求的作用（英）-2025.7_74页_966kb

Market Concentration and Aggregate Productivity: The Role of Demand

Abstract Summary

Market concentration significantly impacts aggregate productivity, with firm-level demand (customer capital) playing a central role. Granular firms invest in demand to complement productivity or amplify market power. Demand is more persistent than productivity, leading to a "mismatch" where static markup distortions may be exacerbated by inefficient demand-side adjustments. Policies targeting static markups may overstimulate demand-side investments, resulting in a trade-off between short-term gains and long-term productivity losses.

Key Findings

1. Demand Dynamics:

   • Residual demand (customer capital) is more persistent than productivity (∆Sales AR(1)=0.87 vs. 0.78), creating long-term market share persistence.
   • Firms respond strategically to demand with marketing investments, which complements productivity but can amplify market power.

2. Aggregate Productivity:

   • Lower demand persistence leads to faster adjustment to productivity shocks (half-life ≈5 years). Endogenous demand accumulation extends adjustment time (half-life >12 years).
   • Policies like production subsidies may backfire by incentivizing excess marketing without matching productivity gains.

3. Policy Implications:

   • Markets with high markups face trade-offs: correcting static distortions may worsen dynamic misallocation if demand-side imbalances are not addressed.

Conclusion

Market concentration and aggregate productivity are interconnected through firm-demand dynamics. Understanding demand heterogeneity is essential for evaluating policies aimed at improving market efficiency and fostering long-term growth.