2011年-世界发展银行全球_Dzud_Disaster_Financing_and_Response_in_Mongolia_76页_1mb

Summary of Dzud Disaster Financing and Response in Mongolia

Core Content

This paper, prepared by Charlotte Benson for the World Bank, examines the institutional and financial frameworks for managing dzud disasters in Mongolia, with a focus on improving the resilience of herder households to climatic risks. It analyzes the 2009-2010 dzud response, identifies challenges and lessons learned, and proposes future options for strengthening disaster risk management and financing.

Main Points

1. Characteristics of a Dzud

• A dzud is a severe winter climatic event involving heavy snowfall and low temperatures, which can threaten both human and livestock populations.
• Dzud can occur in various forms, including:
  • Tsagaan (white): Excessive snow depth and density.
  • Har (black): No snow and below-average temperatures.
  • Tumur (iron): Melting and refreezing of snow, creating ice cover.
  • Hoof dzud: Extreme dry weather leading to grass depletion.
  • Havsarsan (combined): Multiple dzud types occurring simultaneously.

2. Economic Relevance of Dzud

• Dzud has historically had severe economic impacts on Mongolia, with notable events in 1944-45, 1967-68, 1978-79, 1993, 1999-2002, and 2009-2010.
• The 2009-2010 dzud resulted in the death of 8.8 million livestock, causing a capital loss of MNT 264 billion (US$192 million), equivalent to 4.4% of 2009 GDP.
• The dzud also reduced livestock reproduction rates and productivity, leading to further indirect losses.
• Despite these losses, national GDP continued to grow in 2010, but the agricultural sector contracted by 17%.

3. Institutional Framework and Financing Arrangements

• The Government of Mongolia (GoM) allocates annual budgetary resources for dzud and other disaster preparedness.
• The State Emergency Commission (SEC) is responsible for determining the scale of disaster response and authorizing the release of reserves.
• The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) oversees disaster protection and has a regular budget for running costs and reserve replenishment.
• The Government Reserve is managed by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and is available for a range of disaster-related purposes.
• Line ministries and local governments (aimags and soums) have limited resources for disaster response, relying on a small livestock protection fund.

4. 2009-2010 Dzud Response

• The GoM estimated immediate relief funding needs of MNT 34 billion (US$25 million) in early 2010.
• By late May 2010, only between MNT 22.6 billion (US$16.6 million) and MNT 34.6 billion (US$25.4 million) had been committed, likely falling short of requirements.
• The international community's Consolidated Appeal raised less than a fifth of the requested funding, highlighting the inadequacy of external support.
• Funding was poorly targeted, with some assistance distributed evenly across all affected aimags and individual households, rather than focusing on the most vulnerable.
• The response was delayed due to the difficulty in predicting dzud severity and limited capacity and funding.

5. Issues and Scope for Improvement

• The GoM and development partners need to clarify responsibilities and improve coordination.
• A more systematic disaster impact and needs assessment process should be introduced to better monitor evolving situations.
• Transparent criteria for declaring a dzud are essential to ensure timely and appropriate response.
• The system for declaring dzud should be reviewed to allow for regular reassessment of affected areas during an evolving event.
• Targeting of support should be improved to focus on the most severely affected households.
• A comprehensive tracking system for GoM and development partner resources is needed to enhance coordination and monitoring.
• The livestock sector's long-term resilience must be strengthened through better management and risk reduction strategies.

6. Future Options for Strengthening Dzud Risk Management

• Contingency funding arrangements should be established to ensure more timely and coordinated international support.
• Social safety nets could be introduced to provide cash transfers to severely affected households.
• Insurance-based mechanisms, such as Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLIP), should be expanded to include more herders and reduce reliance on ex post responses.
• Taxation of the livestock sector could be used to build dzud response reserves.
• Voluntary insurance contributions should be encouraged as the IBLIP product becomes available.
• Public-private partnerships and market mechanisms could be developed to better manage risk and support recovery.

Key Information

• Dzud is a significant climatic risk in Mongolia, particularly for herder households.
• The 2009-2010 dzud had severe economic and social impacts, with losses exceeding 4.4% of GDP.
• The GoM and development partners have limited and poorly coordinated resources for dzud response.
• Improved ex ante preparedness and targeted support are crucial for reducing the impact of dzud.
• The livestock sector is central to Mongolia's economy and poverty reduction efforts, but it remains vulnerable to climatic shocks.
• Institutional reforms, transparent criteria, and innovative financing instruments are needed to enhance disaster resilience.

Conclusion

The 2009-2010 dzud response was found to be inadequate, inefficient, and poorly targeted. The paper emphasizes the need for a comprehensive dzud management strategy, transparent financing mechanisms, and enhanced institutional coordination. It also highlights the importance of long-term resilience-building in the livestock sector and the potential for innovative instruments such as insurance and social protection programs to improve future preparedness and response.