20150609-工银国际-VIEWPOINTS_EXPRESS_11页_397kb_397kb

报告摘要

Market Report Summary - 9 June 2015

Core Content Overview

This market report provides an update on the performance of the TMT sector and the stock of Weiqiao Textile (2698.HK), along with a review of major equity indices, commodity prices, and financial indicators.

Weiqiao Textile (2698.HK)

Recent Operation Updates

Weiqiao Textile's share price has increased by 45% since the previous report, but the report suggests that the risk-reward ratio is still attractive due to several positive operational factors:

Stabilized Cotton Price:
- US Cotton increased by 1.9% year-to-date (YTD) to $63.3/pound.
- China Grade 328 cotton price decreased by 2% to $13,305/ton.
- This stabilization is expected to improve the company's margins and selling prices in 1H15 compared to 2014.
Lower Utility Cost:
- The company completed restructuring of its electricity generating assets in 2014, leading to a 30% reduction in electricity generation cost.
- This is expected to result in Rmb650mn savings in pre-tax profit (PBT) and will start to take effect in 1H15.
Decreasing Financing Cost:
- The company had Rmb9.0bn of bank borrowing as of June 2014, with interest cost accounting for 52% of EBIT.
- It issued a medium-term note at 5.5% in November 2014, and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut interest rates in the same month, leading to a downward trend in financing costs.
- The company has Rmb10.2bn in cash, with a very low interest rate, and plans to improve returns on this cash balance in 2015. Even a 1% improvement could increase PBT by 16.6%.

Valuation and Outlook

Weiqiao Textile is currently trading at 8x FY15F P/E, significantly lower than its peers such as Pacific Textile (15.8x) and Shenzhen (16.8x).
The report suggests that the market has been overly focused on cotton price fluctuations while overlooking the company's potential for cost savings in electricity and financing.
The report highlights the potential for a good earnings result in FY1H15 as a catalyst for further stock performance.

TMT Sector Highlights

Tencent's Guangdiantong:
- Achieved 1 bln daily ad views with 60 mln daily active users (DAU).
- The success is attributed to high traffic on Tencent's platforms and a user-friendly purchasing design.
Baidu's Investment in Qianhai Mobile:
- Led an $11.5M investment in a startup providing WiFi for commuters.
- Qianhai Mobile, an affiliate of ChinaVision, offers wireless internet on 18 cities' bus routes.
Longmaster's Internet Medical Deal:
- Partnered with Baidu to create an Internet medical platform.
- This will use hospital data to rank and rate hospitals and provide consumers with better medical choices.
SmellMe's Funding:
- Raised $6M in Series A funding led by Innovation Works.
- Now has 5 million registered users, allowing pet owners to create profiles, post updates, and discuss pet-related topics.
Simon Leung's Appointment at NetDragon:
- Simon Leung, former Microsoft Greater China CEO, joined NetDragon as Deputy Chairman and will lead its education business.

Market Performance and Indicators

Stock Market Performance

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Price 27,316, up 0.2%, with a 24.2% turnover.
H-share Index: Price 14,114, up 1.4%, with 19.4% turnover.
Shanghai Composite Index: Price 17,452, down 1.1%.
Shenzhen Composite Index: Price 2,999, down 1.7%.
Nikkei 225: Price 20,457, flat.
Korea KOSPI: Price 2,065, down 0.1%.
Taiwan TWSE: Price 9,368, up 0.3%.
India Sensex 30: Price 26,523, down 0.9%.
DJIA: Price 17,767, down 0.5%.
S&P 500: Price 2,079, down 0.6%.
NASDAQ: Price 5,022, down 0.9%.
UK FTSE 100: Price 6,790, down 0.2%.
Germany DAX: Price 11,065, down 1.2%.
France CAC40: Price 4,858, down 1.3%.

Commodity Prices

WTI Oil: $58.1/bl, down 1.7%.
Gold: $1,172.5/troy oz, up 0.3%.
Copper: $5,948/metric ton, up 0.2%.
Aluminum: $1,750/metric ton, flat.
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index: 223.0, up 0.2%.
Baltic Dry Index: 610.0, flat.

Interest Rates and Bond Yields

HIBOR 3m: 0.39%, up 0.003%.
USD LIBOR 3m: 0.28%, flat.
US Treasury Yield 3m: 0.01%, down 0.01%.
US Treasury Yield 10y: 2.38%, down 0.025%.
China Treasury Yield 2y: 2.44%, flat.
China Treasury Yield 10y: 3.60%, flat.

HK Listco ADR US (Top Ten)

PetroChina: ADR price 9.03, HK price 9.02, 0.07% premium.
China Mobile: ADR price 101.85, HK price 101.30, 0.54% premium.
HSBC: ADR price 73.44, HK price 73.55, 0.14% discount.
China Life: ADR price 36.28, HK price 36.15, 0.36% premium.
Sinopec Corp: ADR price 6.64, HK price 6.66, 0.34% discount.
CNOOC: ADR price 11.73, HK price 11.76, 0.26% discount.
Cheung Kong: ADR price 180.86, HK price 112.90, 60.19% premium.
China Telecom: ADR price 5.14, HK price 5.13, 0.25% premium.
Sun Hung Kai: ADR price 129.23, HK price 128.60, 0.49% premium.
China Unicom: ADR price 13.29, HK price 13.36, 0.49% discount.

Key Takeaways

Weiqiao Textile has strong operational drivers, including stabilized cotton prices, reduced utility costs, and lower financing costs.
The company's current valuation is considered attractive, with a P/E ratio of 8x, lower than its peers.
The TMT sector is showing growth with Tencent and Baidu making strategic investments and partnerships.
The stock market in both Hong Kong and China experienced mixed performance, with some indices showing positive growth while others declined.
Commodity prices were mostly stable, with minor fluctuations.
Interest rates and bond yields showed slight changes, with the PBOC's rate cut having a positive impact on financing costs.

Conclusion

The report highlights that Weiqiao Textile's recent operational updates align with expectations and that its risk-reward profile remains attractive. The TMT sector is also showing signs of growth through strategic moves and investments. The overall market performance was mixed, with some indices showing gains and others declines, indicating a volatile environment. The report suggests that the company's performance in the first half of 2015 could be a key catalyst for further stock movement.

展开完整摘要