20140310-工银国际-VIEWPOINTS_EXPRESS_11页_342kb_342kb

Document Summary

Core Content Overview

This document is a financial market analysis report dated 10 March 2014, focusing on the Weekly Macro Monitor, Kingsoft (3888.HK) stock analysis, and a comprehensive overview of market performance, economic indicators, and financial data across global and regional markets.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Weekly Macro Monitor: Hindsight and Forethoughts

• Chinese Exports Dip in February: Exports declined by 18.1% YoY in February 2014, following a strong 10.6% YoY in January. This decline may be attributed to seasonal effects and a high base effect from the previous year.
• Economic Outlook: Despite the dip, the Chinese government has kept its GDP growth target at 7.5% for 2014, signaling its intent to maintain a stable macroeconomic environment while deepening reforms.
• Onshore Bond Default: The first onshore bond default in China occurred, which indicates a shift toward a more market-based economy. However, it may lead to a re-pricing of credit risk in the market.
• Upcoming Economic Releases: The National Bureau of Statistics will release economic data for January and February on 13 March, which is expected to be a focal point for the week.
• Market Concerns: Weaker PMI numbers and trade data are raising concerns about the near-term economic outlook, but the report suggests that export growth may pick up in the coming months due to improving global demand.

2. Kingsoft (3888.HK) Analysis

• Rating and Target Price: Kingsoft is rated BUY with a target price of HK$35, implying a 20% upside from its current price.
• Growth Potential: The company is expected to see strong growth in online games, advertising, WPS, and mobile internet businesses.
• Strategic Moves: Kingsoft is planning to spin off KIS (Kingsoft Internet Software Holdings) and aim for a US$3 billion offshore IPO in 2014.
• Mobile Applications: The company is well-known for its mobile apps, such as Clean Master and Battery Doctor, which have contributed significantly to its user base and revenue.
• Monetization Strategy: The company's business model suggests a QIHU-style monetization approach, with a strong focus on contextual advertising and game monetization.
• WPS Integration: WPS is expected to provide a positive surprise with integration into KIS cloud and support from Xiaomi, especially with the rise of enterprise procurement.
• Synergies with Partners: Kingsoft is likely to benefit from synergies with Tencent and Xiaomi, enhancing its competitive position in the Chinese internet market.

3. Market Performance and Economic Indicators

• Equity Indices:
  • Hang Seng Index: Closed at 22,660 with a slight decline.
  • H-share Index: Closed at 9,709, up by 0.4%.
  • CSI 300 Index: Down 0.2% to 2,168.
  • Nikkei 225: Up 0.9% to 15,274.
• Commodity Prices:
  • WTI Oil: Increased slightly to $102.6.
  • Gold: Declined to $1,338.6.
  • Copper: Fell by 3.8% to $6,782.0.
  • Aluminum: Down 1.7% to $1,765.0.
• Currency Rates:
  • USD/RMB: Down slightly to 6.13.
  • USD/HKD: Stable at 7.76.
  • EUR/USD: Increased to 1.39.
  • GBP/USD: Slightly down to 1.67.
• Interest Rates:
  • HIBOR 3M: At 0.37%.
  • USD LIBOR 3M: At 0.24%.
  • SHIBOR 3M: At 5.504%.

4. Major Economic Releases for the Week

• 13 March (Thursday):
  • China: Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production data for February.
  • South Korea: Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting.
  • Japan: Machine Orders for January.
  • US: Retail Sales for February and Initial Jobless Claims for 8 March.
• 14 March (Friday):
  • Singapore: Unemployment Rate for 4Q.
  • China: Foreign Direct Investment for February.
  • Other Markets: Additional economic data from various countries.

Conclusion

The report highlights the mixed performance of global and Chinese equity markets, with a focus on the potential for growth in the Chinese internet sector, particularly through Kingsoft, which is positioned for strong expansion in key areas like online gaming and mobile applications. The government's decision to keep its growth target at 7.5% and allow the first onshore bond default signals a shift toward market-based reforms, though this may increase credit risk perception. The upcoming economic data releases are expected to be a major focus for market analysis and investor sentiment.